Tax Reform

Once again, I have written to a staffer for Senator Dan Sullivan, Alaska Republican.  This month's epistle was regarding tax policy, and the ongoing Republican effort to enact tax reform.

Tax reform is deeply needed in the United States, but the direction of Republican reform seems entirely driven by the desire of wealthy political donors for lower taxes.  Representative Chris Collins of New York commented, "My donors are basically saying, 'Get it done or don’t ever call me again."

I believe that the process of reform should be an open process, subject to hearings, testimony, consideration of evidence, and compromise, but the Republican party is pursuing a closed process, without bipartisan input or debate.

And so I wrote to my Senator's staffer again with a sense of futility, despairing of receiving responsible government from Republicans.  But for the reader's consideration, here's my letter, and my priorities for tax reform.  For brevity, I placed my highest priorities in bullet points at the beginning.
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1)       Fully fund the federal government now.  Stop stealing from our children.

2)      Drastically simplify the tax system.

3)      Make everyone pay something.  Make rich people pay more.

4)      Tax unearned income higher than earned income. 

5)      Treat all capital earnings the same.  Eliminate special rules for trusts, S corporations, REITs, limited partnerships, hedge funds.   Treat personal capital earnings (short-term gains, long-term gains and dividends) the same.

6)      Tax foreign business profits in the same year that they are earned.

7)      Eliminate corporate tax loopholes.

8)      Tax unrealized capital gains on financial assets at death.  Keep the estate tax at 40% for estates larger than $10 million per couple.

9)      Place Social Security and Medicare taxes on unearned income at the same rate as wage income.  Eliminate the earning caps on Social Security and Medicare taxes.

10)  Stop lying about how American taxes are higher than other countries.  Correct lies when other people say them. 

Deficit Spending

I ask that you fully fund the Federal Government now.

During Senator Sullivan’s town hall meeting, the Senator expressed serious anxiety regarding the size of the US government debt.  I agree with the Senator on this point.  Debt held by the public is now about $14 trillion, or 76% of GDP.  Gross National Debt is about $20 trillion, or 106% of GDP.  Debt levels over 100% of GDP have been implicated in a number of foreign financial crises, such as Greece, Italy, Portugal, Argentina, and others.  Interest payments are rising as a percentage of the Federal budget, leaving less money for actual beneficial spending. 

Deficit spending is sometimes necessary to stimulate the economy.  But a balance sheet overloaded by debt allows policy makers no flexibility to deal with future crises.  Economic theory says that deficit spending is needed in an economy with high unemployment; an economy at full employment has no need for stimulus.  Deficit spending in an economy at full employment will simply result in inflation.

We’ve been systematically underfunding the Federal government for 40 years.  If this deficit spending was going to produce an economic miracle, it would have happened already.  We should raise taxes to run a surplus until our debt is under control.

Deficit spending, when it is not required for economic stimulus, is immoral.  Like all borrowing, it is taking benefits today, which must be paid for in the future.  The difference with Federal borrowing is that the people who enjoy the benefits of today’s spending will not pay those debts.  These debts will be paid by our children.  By deficit spending, we are literally stealing from our children. 

Any tax plan approved by the Senate should decrease the Federal debt.

Tax Simplification

I agree with Republicans that taxes are too complicated.  I support any reasonable effort to reduce the complexity of taxes, and to ease filing.  It is important that we improve the public perception that our taxes are fair.  I would recommend that the 40% of the population currently not paying income tax pay something, but with corresponding cuts in payroll taxes to mitigate the impact of these taxes on working families.  I would support the phased elimination of many deductions, including the home mortgage interest deduction.  In general, I support changes to reduce the use of the tax code for social engineering, and more to simply fund the government.

Trusts, S Corporations, REITS, limited partnerships and other special kinds of capital ownership should be eliminated, as far as tax law is concerned.  All capital should be treated the same for tax simplification.

I see no reason why unearned income should be exempted from the Social Security and Medicare taxes. 

Earned Income vs. Unearned Income

Work is an American virtue.  Physical productivity is the necessary foundation of our economy and earned wages support American families.  But those wages have decreased for the past two decades, in real terms and as a percentage of the economy (Federal Reserve database, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/ ).  Difficulties faced by young wage-earners are reflected in later marriage ages, later first children, more prevalent emotional difficulties, despair, drug addiction and deaths. 

I would note that any cut in the corporate business tax is implicitly a tax cut on unearned income, as profits pass through to shareholders. 

Changes in our tax law should reduce taxes on wages and increase the taxes on unearned income. 

Estate Tax

Eliminating the estate tax would leave a gaping hole in the taxation of unrealized capital gains.  All unrealized capital gains on financial assets should be taxed at the time of death, and the cost basis re-set for the heirs.  Retain the estate tax for financial assets on estates worth over $10 million per couple.  

Business Taxes

As I document below, American business taxes are already lower than 2/3 of the countries in the OECD.  I have no strong objection to lowering business taxes, but ask that those taxes be replaced by other revenue, so as not to increase the Federal debt.

Corporate tax loopholes (or incentives) should be eliminated, to bring the actual tax paid in line with the nominal tax rate.

I think that foreign business profits should be taxed in the year that they are earned, and not deferred until repatriation. 

I recommend a carbon tax scaled to volume of carbon emitted by each carbon fuel, and acknowledgement that climate change is a major hazard for the United States, and caused primarily by human CO2 emissions.  I would be happy to talk about that in person, to anyone who is not convinced of this point.  A carbon tax should provide additional revenue to allow some of the tax reductions desired by Republicans.

Social Security and Medicare

Tax unearned income at the same rate as earned income.  Remove the earnings caps on Social Security and Medicare taxes.  [Given the opportunity, I would restructure Social Security.  But that is a topic for another post.]

Truth -- American Taxes Compared to Other Countries

I would conclude by noting that the Republican justification for tax reform is based upon outright lies. 

In Donald Trump’s acceptance speech for the Republican nomination, he stated that America is among the most highly taxed countries in the world.  This is the complete opposite of truth.  Anyone with an Internet connection can look at the OECD statistical page (https://data.oecd.org/), and see that the US has almost the lowest Federal tax burden of the industrialized world, and is in the lowest third in terms of total tax burden.   Similarly, you can go to the World Bank database and see that the US Federal tax burden is lower than over 100 countries, and higher than only a handful of third-world countries (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZS).

In Senator Sullivan’s town hall meeting, the Senator said that the US business tax was the highest in the world.  This is deceptive, and since the Senator is a knowledgeable person, I have to conclude that his statement is deliberately deceptive.  It is true that the nominal US business tax rate is higher than other nations, but it is easy enough to check the revenue collected from businesses, and compare to total domestic business profits.  The actual tax paid is far lower than the nominal rate.  Further, you can go again to the OECD database.  The countries with lower business taxes than the United States are Slovenia, Latvia, Turkey, Greece, Germany, Poland, Hungary, Italy, Estonia, France and Finland (2014 & 2015).  The remaining 21 countries – two-thirds of the OECD – have higher business taxes than the United States. https://data.oecd.org/tax/tax-on-corporate-profits.htm

I will judge the Senator’s honor by how well he speaks the truth, and how he speaks out to correct falsehoods when they are used to justify government policies. *

*  You might think me presumptuous to judge the Senator.  I write another blog with the theme that God should be judged according to the standards of reason and justice.  It is not that I have the right to judge.  It is rather that all figures of authority are subject to judgment according to truth, reason and justice.  I think that was the basis of the American Declaration of Independence.  

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The section on Estate Taxes was revised 12/2/2017, returning the proposed estate tax to something similar to current law, but reducing the tax from 55% to 40% of assets over $10 million per couple.

Tax Reform in the United States

This is the fourth in a series of posts about priorities for Congress and President Obama in his second term.
Priority #1, The Fiscal Cliff:
http://debatablypolitical.blogspot.com/2012/11/priorities-for-obamas-second-term-1.html
Priority #2, Reducing the Federal Deficit 
http://debatablypolitical.blogspot.com/2012/12/priorities-for-obamas-second-term-2.html
Priority #3, Immigration Reform: 

http://debatablypolitical.blogspot.com/2012/12/priorities-for-obamas-second-term-3.html

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Priority #4, Tax Reform

The fourth priority for the new Obama administration should be tax reform.  This is an issue that the Republicans got right.  The 2012 Republican platform called for entirely scrapping the Federal Income tax code, and starting over from a clean slate.  Tax reform is necessarily complex, because the tax code is complex.  The political fight will be difficult, because the tax code has penetrated every aspect of American life.  For every provision that might be changed, there will be winners and losers, and it will be difficult to make changes without making enemies.  

The amount of tax collected in the United States is low by comparison to other countries of the OECD.   Overall, the United States collects 24.8 percent of GNP in all taxes, including income, payroll, corporate, excise, and state and local taxes.  The United States ranked 2nd lowest of 34 OECD countries in Federal tax collected as a percentage of GDP (9.4) in 2010, and 3rd lowest  in total tax collected.  However, this blog post is not about the amount of tax collected, but rather about the complexity and economic losses caused by our system of taxes.

A report by the GAO (Government Accountability Office) found that costs to society or our tax system are “large”, but highly uncertain.  According to the report, the U.S. tax system may cost society 2% to 5% of GDP.   This is huge.

The goals of tax reform should be straightforward.   The tax system should be simplified in the interest of fairness and transparency.  The new tax system should reduce economic distortions which presently cause losses of 2% to 5% of GDP.  The new tax system should extend participation to all wage earners, strengthen successful businesses, reduce required record-keeping, and eliminate the motivation for costly tax-avoidance schemes.

Here are the basic areas needing reform. 

1.  Simplify the US income tax.

2.  Gradually eliminate many deductions. 

3.  Extend income tax to all wage-earners, while reducing Social Security and Medicare payroll taxes to keep tax burden on lower-income tax-payers constant. 

4.  Extend Social Security tax to investment income.

5.  Simplify the Corporate Income Tax, and reduce tax rates.

6.  Reduce the Estate Tax rate.

7.  Eliminate Gift Tax, but require payment of Capital Gains upon transfer to another individual.

1.  Simplify the US income tax code

A)  The United States Income Tax Code now amounts to 73,000 pages.  Nobody understands it. 

B)  Employees of the Internal Revenue Service do not understand the tax code.  An audit by the IRS in 2008 showed that its employees provided incorrect tax advice to tax-payers 9% of the time.  The GAO (General Accountability Office) previously found that the IRS error rate was 12% to 25%.  Of course, the tax-payer is liable for any errors made on his return, regardless of the advice he may have received from the IRS.

C)  More than 1.2 million people are employed to assist individuals in preparing tax returns.   Sixty-two percent of tax returns (about 80 million tax returns) are prepared by professionals.  An audit by the GAO found that 12 percent of professionally prepared returns contained reporting errors, and 1 percent contained mathematical errors.  These workers could be doing something of greater value to society, but the potential productivity of these workers is wasted because of the complexity of the tax system.

D)   A 2005 report by the General Accountability Office divided tax costs into compliance (time and effort to complete the tax returns) and efficiency (changes in work, savings, investment and consumption behavior).     The report cited the lowest estimates of the cost to individuals and businesses to prepare tax returns at $107 billion (about 1% of GDP).   Other studies estimate compliance costs to be 50% larger.   Estimates for efficiency losses to the economy range from 2% to 5% of GDP (as of the mid-1990s).

E)  The complexity of the tax code contributes to tax cheating and lost revenue.  The system is so complex that there is a common feeling that other people, particularly the wealthy, are not paying their fair share.  This perception contributes to an attitude that cheating on taxes is justified, in order to pay only as much as others are paying. 

2.  Eliminate many deductions. 

There are seventy-three tax breaks which each reduce tax collections by over a billion dollars.   The largest of these tax breaks is the exclusion of employer-paid health benefits from taxation, which costs about 174 billion dollars each year.  These breaks reduce tax collections by about $1.2 trillion per year; eliminating these tax breaks would balance the Federal budget without any other action. 

These tax breaks are deeply ingrained in American culture, and are a significant part of citizens’ individual tax planning.  Changing or eliminating these breaks will be difficult, but a process of phasing out these deductions should begin, as part of the general simplification of the tax code.

The primary function of the tax code should be to fund the government, not for social engineering.  Congress’ extensive use of taxes for social engineering is impairing the primary function of the tax system.

3.  Extend income tax to all wage-earners.   Reduce Social Security percentage to keep tax burden on lower-income stable.  Every citizen needs to have “skin in the game”, i.e. a vested interest in how US government dollars are spent.

During the 2012 election, much attention was given to Mitt Romney’s complaint (given privately, to roomful of rich donors) that 47% of US wage-earners pay no income tax.  Romney’s statement implied regarding these low wage-earners as parasites on the system.   Interestingly, most of the tax breaks exempting the 47% from income taxes were originally passed as initiatives of Republican presidents.  It should be noted that the 47% are already paying substantial payroll taxes to support Medicare and Social Security. 

Fundamentally, Romney is correct.   It is not right that nearly half of our citizens pay no income tax.  Everyone should pay some Federal tax, to take an “ownership” interest in government.  We should not have a disinterested class of people who have no direct stake in government finances.   Citizens should all feel responsible for some part of financing the government, and to feel some pain about government spending, to motivate interest in voting and spending issues.   It is easy to be disinterested when the government is spending somebody else's money.

Every wage-earner should pay some Federal income tax.  Payroll taxes should be reduced (or incorporated into income tax) in order to extend Federal tax to all workers, without imposing an additional burden.

4.  Extend Social Security tax to investment income.

I see no reason why investment income (interest, dividends and capital gains) should be exempt from Social Security and Medicare taxes.   Social Security and Medicare require additional tax revenue to remain solvent.   It is not fair to make wage-earners carry the entire burden of elder care and the social safety net.   Those who earn money through investments should carry at least an equal burden.

5.  Simplify the Corporate Income Tax, and reduce tax rates.

Federal corporate income tax rates nominally range from 15% to 35% percent.   Additional state taxes are also levied on corporate income.   The United States ranks 17^th of 34 countries in the OECD in terms of corporate tax revenue as a percent of GDP. 

Corporate income taxes, like individual income taxes, are unnecessarily complex.  There are fourteen corporate tax breaks costing over one billion dollars are year in lost revenue.   These tax breaks encourage certain economic goals designated by congress, but sometimes produce market distortions and unintended consequences.   An example is the tax break given for the production ethanol fuels.   Since production of corn-based ethanol consumes nearly as much energy as it produces, the tax break encourages misallocation of resources, and makes food scarcer and more expensive.  Simplification of the corporate tax code would reduce economic distortions, and provide a fairer playing field for companies. 

Corporate income tax acts as a drag on the most successful companies, and helps to prop up unsuccessful companies.  Corporate income tax deprives successful companies of the capital needed to expand, and reduces the competitive margin between successful and unsuccessful companies.  Reducing corporate income tax would encourage successful companies to expand, and help them succeed in global markets.

6.  Reduce the Estate Tax rate.

The United States Estate Tax (pejoratively termed “the Death tax” by opponents), is among the most contentious aspects of the tax system.   A substantial reduction in the Estate Tax rate is recommended.   It might be reasonable to peg the estate tax rate to the long-term capital gains rate, and accompany the transfer of title of assets to a step-up in the cost basis of those assets to the market value at the time of transfer.

The amount of money collected by the estate tax is relatively trivial, yet citizens incur substantial costs and undue anxiety worrying over this tax.  It is clear that citizens spend a great deal of money avoiding the tax, but it is difficult to find unbiased data about how much.  Tax avoidance measures through wills and trusts also introduce economic costs.   A 1999 study cited by the GAO showed that the estate tax resulted in efficiency costs to the economy of $38 billion, as a result of distortions in consumer choices.   By comparison, historically the highest amount ever collected by the estate tax was $ 37 billion.

The tax rate above the minimum exclusion is 2^nd highest among industrialized countries at 55%.  About half of those countries have no estate tax, and the median of the remainder is 20%.  Only Japan has a higher tax rate, at 70%.  The exclusion amount is currently $5 million, but will revert to $1 million on January 1, 2013, pending any revision.

In my view, the Federal government should take a lesson from Henry Ford.  Ford priced his cars as low as possible, and made higher profits by selling more cars.   At 55%, the estate tax is too high.  People are loath to pay this level of tax, and will expend considerable time and money to avoid it.  But a less confiscatory tax would meet with greater compliance, produce less economic costs and distortions, and might produce greater revenue for the government.

A further step would be to prohibit tax-avoiding trusts and trust provisions.  If Congress has decided, for the good of society, that citizens should pay estate tax, then our laws should prevent avoidance of that tax.  It is absurd to permit legal manipulations which evade the intent of our tax laws.

7.  Eliminate Gift Tax, but require payment of Capital Gains upon transfer to another individual.

The Gift Tax is closely tied to the Estate tax.  Essentially, the Gift Tax is simply intended to prevent avoidance of the Estate Tax by early transfer of assets to heirs.    The Gift Tax is only incurred on large transfers of wealth, but requires life-long record keeping.   A better solution would be to peg the Gift Tax to the Capital Gains tax, and step-up the cost basis for assets, exactly as suggested for the Estate Tax.

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References:

Costs of the US Tax System

http://www.gao.gov/assets/250/247539.pdf

In 2005, the GAO reported that costs for tax compliance and tax efficiency are “large”.  Estimates are reported in the range of 1% to 1.5% of GDP for compliance; and economic efficiency costs are reported in the range of 2% to 5% of GDP, (mid-1990s).   No better data was available.

ICB (Treasury Department) estimated that individuals, businesses and exempt organizations spent a total of 6.4 billion man-hours filling out tax forms.  Others do not trust these estimates.

Compliance costs are reported over $100 billion or about 1% of GDP; this is given as the low-end of the uncertainty range. 

http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?QueryId=21699

Interactive OECD comparative tables about taxes as percentage of GDP.

US 2010 total tax: 24.8 percent of GDP, 3^rd lowest of 34 OECD countries

US 2010 federal tax:  9.4 percent of GDP, 2^nd lowest of 34 OECD countries

Federal 9.4 percent,  State 5.1 percent,  Local, 4.0 percent, Social Security  6.4 percent  (of GDP)

US 17^th of 34 in Corporate Tax collected (as a percentage of GNP) in 2010.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate_tax_in_the_United_States

General information.

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/mary-kate-cary/2010/04/21/how-confusing-is-the-tax-code-even-the-irs-chief-gets-help

Over 70,000 pages in the US tax code, 2010

IRS Errors and Tax Preparer Errors

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/moneymag_archive/1997/04/01/224332/index.htm

1997 article; IRS advice was incorrect 12% of the time by telephone, 40% of the time in person.

http://www.stopirstakeover.org/facts/irs-tax-preparer-wrong-25-of-the-time

IRS advice wrong 25% of the time.

http://irsmind.blogspot.com/2008/04/irs-error-rate-39-do-you-trust-them.html

More about IRS errors.

http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/07resconfbloom.pdf

62 percent of tax returns (80 million) are prepared by paid tax preparers (2005).

42 percent of test returns resulted in material errors (of $1500 per return).

12 percent of returns by professional preparers contain reporting errors; 1 percent contain math errors.

10 percent of self-prepared returns contain reporting errors; 5 percent contain math errors.

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d06563t.pdf

In a GAO audit of paid tax preparers, the professions arrived at the correct answer on only 2 out of 19 tax returns.

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d11111.pdf

Accuracy at IRS walk-in assistance centers improved from 85% in 2008 to 91% in 2010.   Assistance centers are staffed by volunteers.    Accuracy at call-in centers is not reported.   Only 76% of callers seeking live help receive service.

Costs of Tax Preparation

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2012/08/15/there-are-more-tax-preparers-in-america-than-firefighters-and-police-combined

About 1.2 million tax preparers in the US.

http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-05-878

Cost of tax preparation in the United States is $100 billion to $150 billion.

“Understanding the magnitude of these additional costs is important because every dollar spent on compliance and lost due to inefficiency represents a dollar that society could have spent for other purposes.”

Tax Expenditures
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/tax-code-break-by-break/

Details of 172 tax breaks for individuals and corporations.  Seventy three tax breaks account for more than one billion dollars each of lost tax revenue. 

Estate Tax

http://www.cbpp.org/cms/?fa=view&id=389

Politically biased piece in favor of estate tax.  Costs of compliance with Estate Tax estimated at 7% of tax collected.  Cost of avoidance is belittled, but not quantified. 

http://www.jec.senate.gov/republicans/public/?a=Files.Serve&File_id=bc9424c1-8897-4dbd-b14c-a17c9c5380a3

Politically biased piece, in opposition to estate tax.  Large costs are claimed for estate tax.   Maximum ever collected by estate tax is $37 billion, in constant dollars.

http://www.cbpp.org/files/estatetaxmyths.pdf

Cost of compliance with Income tax is estimated at 14.5% of tax collected; cost of compliance with estate tax is estimated at 7% of tax collected.

http://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/tbb-0606-36.pdf

At 55%, the United States Estate tax is second only to Japan in a list of 50 industrialized countries.

About half of those countries have no estate tax, and the median of the remainder is 20%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estate_tax_in_the_United_States

Without new legislation, estate taxes will revert to 55% of the value of estates greater than $1 million.   It is expected that the exemption amount will be raised by new legislation.  An exemption of $5 million was put in place in 2010.

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d05878.pdf

One study cited estimated efficiency costs of the Estate tax at $38 billion in 1999.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/charleskadlec/2012/07/30/why-the-death-tax-is-the-dumb-tax/

The most tax ever collected by the estate tax was $37 billion, in 2000.