Thanks to my daughter Kathy for naming this blog.

















Bald Eagle in Anchorage, Alaska

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Monday, November 14, 2016

Reactions to the election, 11/9/2016

The following paragraphs are reactions to the election from my relatively small group of Facebook friends. These comments are among the most heart-felt and eloquent statements I have ever received from personal friends.  These are truly honest statements of deepest conviction from the depths of the soul. 
As I was reading, it occurred to me that there were similar themes in all of the posts: fear, shame for our country, anger, concern for the future of society, the environment, and the international community.  So I gathered them up into a single document, to place on this blog for all to read. 
I included a few words about the identity of the author of each post, just enough to characterize each author as an individual, with personal concerns about life and the lives of others.

Chemist, Missionary’s daughter, raised overseas, married with a young child–
I'm scared.
In the past few days, we have white supremacists marching in celebration. We have brown schoolchildren (many born on American soil) being told by their peers that they will be deported. We have high school students intimidating their classmates. We have women being threatened for wearing a hijab. We have members of the LGBTQ community being threatened and harassed. We have swastikas and all manner of hateful graffiti cropping up on every available surface.
This is not the America we are capable of being. This is not what the free world is supposed to look like. This is not a society worth being proud of. Now I -know- not all Trump supporters think this way. But it isn't enough to not-think it. To see it and say nothing is to tacitly condone it. To ignore the elephant in the room is to give it your silent blessing. So, if you think all of this is wrong? Don't just think it. Say it. Say it loud, say it early, and say it often. Shout it. Confront it where you encounter it. Let everyone know that this is not okay, and that America is capable of being better than this.

Mother of adult children –
I hate going out into the community and having people think that I voted for Trump, wondering if I am anti-minority, anti-gay, anti-immigrant, because I am a middle-aged white woman.

Classmate, geologist, Japanese-American anti-racism educator.  Her father served in the U.S. military immediately after WWII.
This week I'm posting in FB political fray (more often it's all about my awesome kids and dogs). But as you know, for 20 years my passion has been anti-racism organizing.  I'm devastated. Trump is aligned with the KKK and he has exposed the dangerous racial prejudice in millions of people in this country. The record turnout of voters was not for the most qualified candidate but sadly for Jim Crow.

College senior, writer –
I have never been so terrified for my future and the future of my family and friends.
I am afraid and if you can't see why, I'm going to need you to go unfriend me because clearly you don't know me well enough to be considered my friend.
It's not so much the governmental changes that I fear exclusively, though they're significant.  Primarily, I worry about a cultural shift where behaviors of racism, sexism, etc, become more normalized because of our leader exhibiting such behaviors. I can keep my head down, I can get by, but at the end of the day I am a woman in a country so afraid of a woman leader that we elected a bigot. It is the climate surrounding his election that I am truly afraid of, not the man himself.

Geology classmate, retired –
After a long, pretty much sleepless, night...for the very first time in my life, I am embarrassed to be called an American. I am ashamed of that portion of our country that found ANY redeeming qualities in the baboon we collectively just elected.
I'll recover. WE will recover. One way or another, our country will survive. But this morning, I am ashamed.
The anger will come. After the pain.
My best buddy, for more than 5 decades was on the email stream at 3:40 this morning, and we shared a couple of notes back and forth. Quoting him here, because I don't have better words right now...
-----
My morning note to my kids. I feel like I failed them.
And lo, a darkness fell upon the Earth and covered the land so that day was night and the animals of the ground and sky ventured not forth from their burrows and nests.
The last time I was this disappointed about an election outcome was in 1980 when Reagan defeated Carter... It felt like the world had ended the morning after. I was working in Idaho then, and still remember driving around the countryside in a state of shock.
It is now up to your generation to set a new path forward into the future, one that includes and treats all people equally, that does not know sex or skin color or ethnic origin, and treats each other and the Earth with respect.
Where things ended last night is where they start this morning. The battle has begun.
Love,
Dad

Harvard Law grad, mother of young children
A lot of reactions and quotes on Facebook this morning. The one that sticks with me most: "it must be nice to be able to look past racism when it doesn't affect you."
I would say the same of being able to look past bullying, restricting who people can marry and even openly love, abuse and sexual assault, objectification of women, lies, and hate speech against people of all ages who face intimidation and discrimination because of disability, gender and gender identification, sexuality, religion, ethnicity, and national origin.
I won't tell anyone what to do or think, and even the advice about comforting kids feels incomplete right now. I'm not feeling particularly like building bridges. Some of the aforementioned issues are divisions that I don't believe should ever be bridged. So, I can just speak for the impact of this election on my decisions going forward.
This has changed how I feel about discussing sensitive political issues. In recent years, I have been afraid of offending friends and family who disagree. I've read the posts about respecting political choices, about being tired of political posts on social media, and about agreeing to disagree. I can subscribe to those ideas to an extent: I absolutely agree with kindness toward all people. I absolutely agree that all people, no matter what they think, should be treated with respect.
I will not, however, stop speaking out against discrimination, against injustice, against bullying, and against lies.
The election is over, but I will continue to be vocal about my support of LGBT rights.
I will be vocal about my support of women's rights and women's issues.
I will be vocal about my support of decisions based on science and on the long-term survival of our planet.
I will be vocal about opposing policies that harm any person because of where they are from, their religious beliefs, or the color of their skin.

Repeating the poem from theologian Martin Niemöller, on the rise of Nazism:
"First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Socialist.
Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Trade Unionist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me."
To my friends and family who are afraid right now: I will stand with you, and I will not be silent.

Retired geologist, father of adult children
So, let's tally up what will change --
> ACA (Obamacare) is gone, and with it my daughter's health insurance. I don't know what company will insure someone with epilepsy and high prescription medicine costs doing free-lance art work for a living.
> Roe v. Wade is gone. Abortion rights will disappear, at least in red states.  The result will be amateur abortions and deaths, and hundreds of thousands of unwanted babies. Women whose pregnancies have gone wrong (like my wife some 28 years ago), will be compelled to carry a baby for nine months, only to give birth to a baby doomed to die at birth.  Such pregnancies are a danger to a woman’s life, but few doctors will be available or willing to risk providing an abortion.
> Women’s access to birth control may be restricted, not covered by insurance, or not available through insured prescription services (e.g., the Supreme Court Hobby Lobby decision).
> The Paris climate change accord is gone, and any reasonable action on climate change.
> Scientific research into climate change will be stifled, through redirection of the USGS, NASA, and NOAA, as already pledged by GOP senators.
> An end to free trade will mean the return of inflation, a scourge that was eliminated from our economy because of the efficiencies of free trade.  This will mean a higher cost of merchandise and necessities, and a lower standard of living for those on fixed incomes.
> Trade wars with our trading partners will mean a decline in economic activity.  We already know the result of the Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act, which was a major cause of the Great Depression.
> Ten million illegal immigrants leading peaceful and productive lives in the United States will spend another 4 years outside of any legal protections. Many will be deported to a bleak future.
> America will take no responsibility to care for refugees, although we share responsibility for the conflicts which shattered their lives.
> LGBT rights will be taken away.
> NATO defense of the Baltic states is gone.
> Uncertain relations with Islamic countries. Will we just withdraw, or start bombing indiscriminately?
> Cuts to government poverty programs.
> Public lands may be given to the states to auction off, as pledged in the Republican platform.
> Conservation efforts of all kinds will be impaired.
> Conservative-dominated Supreme Court for a generation. The Court will give more power to corporations, churches, and wealthy political donors.
> Weakening of the separation of church and state. There will be more influence by churches in the schools, courts and local governments.
Oh, and we will make America great again.
Anything else?

Young professional in Public Health
Today, we put a racist, bigoted, sexual predator in the white house. Yes, I am deeply saddened that we were unable to break that highest, thickest glass ceiling. But even more, I am heartbroken and afraid of what this means for our country.
I am scared for myself. As a woman of reproductive age who does not plan on having children in the immediate future, I am terrified of losing control over my decision of if, when, and how to have children.
I am scared for my friends and family who fear their marriages and families being ripped apart, who fear for their lives and safety. To my black, brown, Latinx, Muslim, immigrant, differently abled, and LGBT+ friends and family: I am sorry we failed you. I am sorry we did not do more. I'm sorry for the hatred that has become more brazen, because it has come out of the mouth of our president-elect. If you need to talk, yell, scream, cry, or be hugged, know that I am here for you. You deserve better, and I will fight with you to ensure that you get it.
I'm scared for the rest of the world. The US election does not only impact Americans. Our president-elect has made very clear his feelings on climate change. Decisions on climate made in the next 4 years will impact our entire world for generations to come. US foreign aid saves millions of lives, providing access to AIDS drugs, contraception, malaria prevention and treatment, and life-saving medical treatments.
Today I woke up and spent the first 20 minutes of my day trying not to vomit. I went to work, managing to not cry until my last metro stop. I had to stop after getting off metro to breathe through and stave off a panic attack. I cried during Hillary's concession speech, during our all-staff meeting, on the bus on the way home.
So first, remember this feeling. This deep sick feeling in the pit of your stomach that makes you want to curl up in a ball and scream. For many who live with inequality and injustice daily, this feeling isn't new. But for those most privileged among us, this feeling will fade as our lives return to some semblance of normalcy and complacency. So remember it. Sit with it. Get to know it.
Today, be kind to yourself. Practice self-care. And once you have healed, pull that gut-wrenching feeling up to the surface and use it to fight for your friends, your family, and your country. 

Young energy professional
Repost -- I feel like I don't even know my country tonight. People who proudly wear their "deplorable" label and don their red cap don't realize how unsafe they've made people feel – esp. my friends whose mosques have been targeted, my friends who are stopped-and-frisked for no reason, my friends who can't hold their partner's hand in public out of fear, my friends who have had to accept misogyny turned mainstream.
But to my friends: I'm ready to fight for you. Trump is not some political genius, he's a con artist who rose to prominence through a racist birtherism lie and has been normalized by the ignorance of echo chambers. I'm heartbroken, but we're not going backward. I'm ready to fight for you.
Message me and let's get started.

Geology classmate, retired
Heartsick for our country and the world.
A British friend just pointed out that they consider today 9/11 (day/month). Similar level of fear and despair for half of the country, but this time the attack on our values came from within  :(
Friend -- Frankly, I think this is far worse for our country than 9/11. I know it doesn't sound right to say that, and I mean no disrespect to the 3,000 murdered on that terrible day, but an attack from the outside is easier to understand than this being blindsided from within. And I think that ultimate the consequences of this election will be worse for our country and the entire world. Betting that somehow the literal body count of a Trump presidency will be higher than the attacks of 9/11, too.
I'm leaving Facebook for awhile. I'm too angry with some friends and family and I need to find some calm if I ever hope to reengage with them. If you cannot comprehend the fear and upset of over half the population, maybe you should ask for help understanding rather than being derisive and reaffirming your lack of compassion and empathy for others.

Classmate, librarian, mother of Down’s syndrome child
A racist sexual predator who cheats his employees, mocks the disabled and thinks he's smart for not paying taxes has been elected the president of the US. I'm still stunned and heartbroken. His words have already unleashed the darkest urges of Americans and given permission to those who share his prejudices to act on them. What kind of world will this be for my disabled daughter?
I don’t think you understand us right now.
I think you think this is about politics.
I think you believe this is all just sour grapes; the crocodile tears of the losing locker room with the scoreboard going against us at the buzzer.
I can only tell you that you’re wrong. This is not about losing an election. This isn’t about not winning a contest. This is about two very different ways of seeing the world.
Hillary spoke about a diverse America; one where religion or skin color or sexual orientation or place of birth aren’t liabilities or deficiencies or moral defects. Her campaign was one of inclusion and connection and interdependency. It was about building bridges and breaking ceilings. It was about going high.
Trump imagined a very selective America; one that is largely white and straight and Christian, and the voting verified this. Donald Trump has never made any assertions otherwise. He ran a campaign of fear and exclusion and isolation—and that’s the vision of the world those who voted for him have endorsed.
They have aligned with the wall-builder and the professed p*ssy-grabber, and they have co-signed his body of work, regardless of the reasons they give for their vote:
Every horrible thing Donald Trump ever said about women or Muslims or people of color has now been validated.
Every profanity-laced press conference and every call to bully protestors and every ignorant diatribe has been endorsed.
Every piece of anti-LGBTQ legislation Mike Pence has championed has been signed-off on.
Half of our country has declared these things acceptable, noble, American.
This is the disconnect and the source of our grief today. It isn’t a political defeat that we’re lamenting, it’s a defeat for Humanity.
We’re not angry that our candidate lost. We’re angry because our candidate’s losing means this country will be less safe, less kind, and less available to a huge segment of its population, and that’s just the truth.
Those who have always felt vulnerable are now left more so. Those whose voices have been silenced will be further quieted. Those who always felt marginalized will be pushed further to the periphery. Those who feared they were seen as inferior now have confirmation in actual percentages.
Those things have essentially been campaign promises of Donald Trump, and so many of our fellow citizens have said this is what they want too. 
This has never been about politics.
This is not about one candidate over the other.
It’s not about one’s ideas over another’s.
It is not blue vs. red.
It’s not her emails vs. his bad language.
It’s not her dishonesty vs. his indecency.
It’s about overt racism and hostility toward minorities.
It’s about religion being weaponized.
It’s about crassness and vulgarity and disregard for women.
It’s about a barricaded, militarized, bully nation.
It’s about an unapologetic, open-faced ugliness.
And it is not only that these things have been ratified by our nation that grieve us; all this hatred, fear, racism, bigotry, and intolerance—it’s knowing that these things have been amen-ed by our neighbors, our families, our friends, those we work with and worship alongside. That is the most horrific thing of all. We now know how close this is.
It feels like living in enemy territory being here now, and there’s no way around that. We wake up today in a home we no longer recognize. We are grieving the loss of a place we used to love but no longer do. This may be America today but it is not the America we believe in or recognize or want.
This is not about a difference of political opinion, as that’s far too small to mourn over. It’s about a fundamental difference in how we view the worth of all people—not just those who look or talk or think or vote the way we do.
Grief always laments what might have been, the future we were robbed of, the tomorrow that we won’t get to see, and that is what we walk through today. As a nation we had an opportunity to affirm the beauty of our diversity this day, to choose ideas over sound bytes, to let everyone know they had a place at the table, to be the beacon of goodness and decency we imagine that we are—and we said no.
The Scriptures say that weeping endures for a night but joy comes in the morning. We can’t see that dawn coming any time soon.
And this is why we grieve.

Retired female minister –
My idealism is mightily bruised.
I know that the religious right has felt their country slipping away from how they were brought up, away from all they feel is good and right and, most importantly, away from their understanding of God's Law; and that this slipping has been a slow movement over many years.
- 1967 Teaching evolution in schools is protected by freedom of speech
- Late 1960s and early 1970s Sex education was opposed because it promoted promiscuity ... and the Sexual Revolution proved it.
- 1973 Abortion is legalized
- 1980s Courts began ruling that religious displays are not allowed on public land, including nativity scenes and Ten Commandment displays at City Hall
- 1990s to present Stem Cell Research
- 1994 first state legalized Physician Assisted Death
- 2015 same-sex marriage is legalized
(As I made this list I found it interesting that so much of what was done or undone had to involve legislation and/or the courts, and God's Law.)
On Tuesday night, my idealism got beaten up pretty bad. This is not simply the idealism of growing up in the 60s. My idealism is as a woman of faith who puts greater importance on how we treat each other than on how we legislate the way others should treat each other. All of a sudden, my ideal America began shaking, threatening to tip over.
- refugees welcomed into safety and given a chance to thrive
- racism and all other negative isms noticeably decreasing
- religious freedom, even religions that are not Judeo-Christian
- a fair percentage gap between the wages of the CEO and the cleaning lady
- true concern and care for the environment
- all people are equal and so all share the same rights
- generosity of the riches of our country with all the world
- health care for everyone
- a willingness to use our military to protect against cruel dictators and genocide throughout the world
These are among the ideals of America that make her great and these are just some of the ideals that Christians can support and work toward.
My bruises will heal and I will again pray that I may be used to spread God's Grace.

Fifth-grade teacher, foreign-born, recently retired –
Okay , so I lied. Here I am on Facebook. I'm only here because I have heard so much from my friends and former students about how disillusioned they are with the electoral process and how disturbed they are by what this election showed about the American people. I suggest that you can take solace in this. It's easy to gain power, it's not so easy to rule a nation. When Americans begin to suffer the repercussions of what I suspect will be some significant changes, they might not be so happy with the choice they made. It will be difficult for Republicans to deflect blame for the problems that ensue when they are in charge of the entire government. It is possible that we will all be proven wrong. Perhaps Mr Trump was just acting. Perhaps he will rise to the occasion. More likely the American system will prove itself to be fairly resilient. We will go through a rough period but then change will come once again.  You can also take solace in the fact that people have felt as you feel now for quite some time. Consider this quote from HL Mencken: Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people. This too shall pass.
            Friend --  If we are not killed or deported in the process

Classmate, professional theater actor and musician
I am scared.
I am scared for our planet, because four years from now may be too late to take action to avoid catastrophic climate change.
I am afraid for my friends and relatives of color, for my friends and relatives whose faith is other than Christian, for my friends and relatives who are immigrants, for my friends and relatives who are LGBT and/or Q, for my friends and relatives who have a disability, all of whom have now been given even more cause to feel that they are not full citizens of this great country, and who may be the target of folks who have been emboldened to think that their sense of entitlement is just.
I am afraid for all the women I know and love, that their long march toward equality with men must stretch even longer. (I also grieve for my mother, who at 86 may not now live to see a woman become president of the United States, something she has dreamed of for a very long time.)
I am afraid for my country, that our faith in our institutions of government, and of the media, even our mechanisms for agreeing on what is true and what is a lie, have been deeply, deeply damaged.
I am afraid that, while I trust that Martin Luther King is right about the arc of history, justice is even further off than I thought.
I know I have plenty of company. I read today that 55% of Democrats are scared of Republican policies, and 49% of Republicans are scared of the Democrats’. As a character in a play I was just in said (about the previous presidential election): “I’d ask them—you both spent how much on this election? I think I read—two billion dollars. Maybe I’m wrong but it seems to me it was mostly spent scaring people about the other guy. So now—look what you’ve got—a whole lot of people who are very scared.”
That is indeed what we’ve got. We got what we paid for.
But.
Hillary won the popular vote. (The only reason she is not our President-Elect is because our Founding Fathers—as they then were—didn’t trust the unwashed masses and invented the Electoral College to save us all from demagogues and charlatans. Thanks, guys.)
Let me repeat that: Hillary won the popular vote. If you think you woke up Wednesday morning in a country you don’t know, you’re a little less than half right.
I’m sure Hillary feels much better.
But.
I can’t spend the next four years scared. That won’t do either my oncoming ulcers or this country any good. I’m not suggesting that there is nothing to fear. But fear helped get us here—I can’t see how being (only) scared will get us to a better place. One of my acting teachers was fond of saying, “You don’t run away from a bear, you run toward a tree.” So where are my trees?
A few days ago I posted a video of a flashmob dancing in pantsuits in Union Square. There were all ethnicities, there were men, there were strong women who weren’t shy about taking centerstage. They were joyful, cheeky, determined; they weren’t in lockstep but they were unified. As a metaphor for the America I love, it’s pretty damn good. I can run toward that tree.
My other trees are you. Each of you. All of you. Whenever I’m inclined to hide under a rock, will you please remind me of that dance? Or better yet, tell me about the America you love, and what you’re doing to dance it into being.
One of our pastors is fond of using a benediction adapted from William Sloane Coffin:
“May God grant you the grace never to sell yourself short. Grace to risk something big for the sake of something good. Grace to remember that the world is now too dangerous for anything but truth and too small for anything but love.”
Amen.

Retired Norwegian musician, grandmother, former resident of USA and Trinidad --
The world will never be safe again! I feel so sorry for my grandchildren and us all.
I feel for you all and it's a sad day for all of us! It was terrible to wake up to this shocking news. Will we ever feel safe again and will the next generation ever forgive us?

Neighbor, college friend, breast cancer surgeon
Repost:  If you wonder why so many of us are scared...How many times was I told this election cycle that it was safe to vote for Trump because all that bigotry was just bluster and would go away as soon as he was elected. Bannon was just named his Chief Strategist?! Doesn't sound like he wants those ideas to just go away as a campaign stunt.
            Following: 1930s News article about the rise of Adolf Hitler

Friend from high school church group, author of book of children’s book on learning techniques.
It's time to look in the mirror.
What do you want to recall about yourself and what do you want others to recall about you when you think back on this election?
It seems folks are able to remember every negative thing said about each candidate, but very little about the good.
How is what is being said and done now having a positive effect on our culture?
Rather than feeling angry, find a positive outlet for your emotions.
If you don't like the way the opposition is behaving then demonstrate the appropriate way to behave.
Make a donation, volunteer, do a good deed.
Not only will others benefit, you will begin to heal.
Anger breeds anger.
Goodness breeds goodness.
Do you like the way you feel right now?
Only you can change that.

Friday, November 11, 2016

About Playing Nicely After the Election

A number of Facebook friends have posted an idea which I support in principle. The idea is that the American republic and Constitution worked as designed. We properly elected a president, who won according to the rules, fair and square.  We are being urged to support that president-elect, to play nicely and work to ensure his success. This is how it should be.

But where was this sentiment for the past eight years? Where was the support for President Obama? How many Republicans worked to ensure his success?  Which Republicans supported him in any way?

Seriously, before you read any further, answer those questions for yourself.

Instead, there was every effort to de-legitimize and undermine his presidency.

In Congress, there were unprecedented delays in the approval of nominees to fill critical government posts. Congress acted to block every legislative initiative, regardless of merit. The stated goal, expressed by conservative pundits, congressmen and senators, was to deny President Obama any legislative victory. There would be no compromise on any bill, good or bad; no attempt to improve flawed bills that were needed to address the nation's urgent problems.

President Obama's signature piece of legislation, the Affordable Care Act, extended health insurance coverage to about 22 million Americans (including my daughter), who otherwise would not be able to obtain health insurance.  To pass this piece of legislation, the President needed support.  He begged for any Republican votes, even a single vote.  And there were many ways in which Republicans could have participated to make the ACA a better bill.  Instead, the President had to meet the demands of the most liberal Democrats, to include unnecessary bells and whistles on the legislation.  And there were problems with the bill -- to the delight of Republicans who wanted it to fail.

And finally, the Republican Senate blocked of the nomination of Merrick Garland - a judge eminently qualified and praised by prominent Republicans-- to the Supreme Court for nearly one-quarter of Obama’s second term.

Outside of Congress, efforts to undermine President Obama included outlandish lies by the hundreds, gleefully shared by email and on social media.  Stealthier propaganda was disguised as advertising or news.  This includes deeply biased newscasts on television and radio, shading every event with negative innuendo.  It includes substantive false reporting about the state of the nation, in terms of employment, crime, immigration, and taxes -- falsehoods that were repeated in Republican campaign speeches for the past year.

This isn’t about Secretary Clinton, whom I saw as a flawed candidate, but infinitely better in terms of policy and temperament than Mr. Trump.  This is about the treatment of Barack Obama.  Although I sometimes did not agree with his judgment, he is one of the finest men to occupy the oval office in my lifetime.  That is not a subject for debate.  I think his presidency was stolen from the nation by conservative partisans.  Republicans did not play nicely.

Despite all misgivings, it is necessary to peacefully inaugurate Mr. Trump as President, although I feel that he rode a wave of deception, voter suppression and propaganda to victory.  But Democratic Congressional delegation must work to preserve the policy initiatives by President Obama, and strenuously oppose President Trump in his efforts to overturn that progress.

As I said in another post, many years ago I tried to express my about relations between different societies, countries, or individuals from different cultures.   It went something like this:

Celebrate that which is different.
Learn from that which is new and unexpected.
Respect that which you cannot understand. 
Tolerate things which to you are merely unpleasant.
Confront that which is evil.

The Republican Party has come to include something that is evil.  The evil is present not in all people, but is present at all levels of the party: in the leadership, in the right-wing media, and in the common citizens who support the party.  Those evil things include suppression of legitimate voters, de-legitimizing the presidency of President Obama through an outrageous series of lies, deliberate and false slander of President Obama and his programs, spreading false news reports to a gullible audience through social media, encouragement of racism and bigotry, and denial of scientific truth.  I'm sure there is more, but that is enough.  Our political conflict, our culture war, is profound enough that it can not be tolerated, but must be confronted by whatever means without resorting to violence.

So, I feel like I’ve been kicked down by a bully who extends his hand and says, “Let’s be friends!”
NO, I don’t think so.  I don’t see why the Democratic party should play nicely any more.

Thursday, October 20, 2016

The Social Contract of Democracy -- the President, the Senate, and the U.S. Supreme Court

Democracy is a social contract.  It is a tacit agreement between competing interests to abide by the results of a vote, with the majority carrying the decision.  Democracy is the only fair way to achieve peaceful transfers of power and peaceful evolution of society.

There is currently a vacancy on the Supreme Court, due to the death of Justice Antonin Scalia on February 16, 2016.  President Obama has nominated Merrick Garland, Chief Judge of the United States Court of Appeals, D.C. District, to fill that seat.  Confirmation of the President’s nominee by the U.S. Senate is required to complete the appointment to the Court, and return the Court to its full complement of Justices.  Republicans in the Senate have refused to allow hearings for Judge Garland, or for any nomination by President Obama.  Judge Garland has received the highest honors and recommendations throughout his education and career, and is undeniably well-qualified to serve as a Supreme Court Justice.


The Republican Senate is currently in open rebellion against the Constitution which they so fervently and hypocritically invoke.  The Senate has an obligation under the Constitution to advise and consent to the President’s nomination to the Supreme Court.  There is no provision for delaying until the next election.  There is no provision for refusing to consider any candidate nominated by the President.   

John McCain has pledged to block any nomination to the Supreme Court, if Hillary Clinton is elected President.  This is a continuation of the Republican violation of our social contract of democracy under the constitution.

I do not know what Republicans now expect, if the roles are reversed, and a Republican president expects to nominate conservative justices to the Supreme Court.  I can guarantee that there will be no cooperation, because I see no reason for Democrats to ever cooperate with Republicans on filling a Supreme Court vacancy which by all rights belongs to a Democratic president.  The consequence must the destruction of our judicial system, and with it, our society.

Donald Trump has pledged that if he loses, it can only be “because the system is rigged” – a totally baseless claim.  In the third presidential debate, Trump stated that he would only agree to abide by the results of the election if he wins.  This is again a violation of our social contract.  

This is not the way it is supposed to work. 

Republicans have broken the social contract of American democracy for eight years.  We cannot have a democratic form of government with this behavior.  We cannot have a peaceful transfer of power without respectful acceptance of the results of our elections. 

Throughout the presidency of Barrack Obama, Republicans have broken that social contract in word and deed.  From the first day of his presidency, Republicans have denied the legitimacy of his leadership.  They have slandered Obama with outlandish lies circulated on social media.   Prominent Republicans, conservative leaders and media have spoken publicly of their commitment to deny Obama any legislative victory.  They have stalled nominations beyond any precedent, bringing the functions of government to a standstill.  They have blocked funding on critical national issues such as public health.  They have deliberately and grossly misrepresented the status of the country to the credulous Republican voter base with regard to important national issues:  employment, taxes, crime, and immigration.

Republicans have repeatedly proved that they do not believe in democracy, by gerrymandering districts, by spurious and discriminatory voter ID laws, by gathering thugs to intimidate voters at the polls, with intimidation and bullying at every level, as evidenced by Donald Trump’s physical intimidation of Hillary Clinton at the second debate.  That kind of behavior must stop if we are to preserve our form of government.

Republicans have the power to shut down the American government.  Republicans have the power to shut down the Judicial branch of government.  But they do not have the right to do so.  Continued intransigence by Republicans can only be detrimental to the country, and will end the peaceful transfers of power we have enjoyed, which are unique in the world for a period of a century and a half.  

Sunday, October 9, 2016

Illegal Immigration from Mexico


One of the most prominent features of Donald Trump’s campaign for President is his call for a wall along the border with Mexico to stop the flood of illegal immigrants across the border.  But the actual situation is that the flow of illegal immigrants since 2008 is southward.  According to Pew Research, the number of illegal immigrants from Mexico has declined by 20%, or 1.2 million people over the past eight years. 

The conservative, anti-immigration institute Center for Immigration Studies acknowledges that net immigration from Mexico, including both illegal and legal immigrants, has been ZERO over the period 2010 – 2014, the latest figures published.

We can guess the reasons for the decline in illegal immigration beginning in 2008.  Factors probably include lack of opportunity due to the Great Recession, increased border surveillance, the E-verify status checking program for employers, and increased hostility towards immigrant Mexicans. 


But the short story is that the narrative about a flood of immigrants across our border during the Obama administration is simply false.  
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References
[See Table 5.]

Wednesday, October 5, 2016

Crime Rate in the United States

The rate of violent crime in the United States in 2015 is the lowest in forty-five years, except for the preceding year, 2014.  Nevertheless, Republican candidates and conservative media are portraying the country as beset by violent crime.  The rise and fall of violent crime over the past 55 years deserves more serious treatment. 

Donald Trump made Law and Order one of the main themes of his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention.  Trump painted a picture of America torn by violent crime, as seen in a few excerpts from his speech below.  Conservative news channels, such as FOX News, One America Network, and talk radio have also made crime a major issue in the campaign, in an attempt to discredit the Obama administration and the Democratic Party.

Donald Trump, Acceptance Speech at the Republican National Convention, 2016:
“I have a message for all of you: the crime and violence that today afflicts our nation will soon come to an end. “
“Decades of progress made in bringing down crime are now being reversed by this Administration’s rollback of criminal enforcement.”
“Homicides last year increased by 17% in America’s fifty largest cities. That’s the largest increase in 25 years. In our nation’s capital, killings have risen by 50 percent. They are up nearly 60% in nearby Baltimore.”
“I will restore law and order our country.…I am the Law And Order candidate. “

But let’s look at the data.  The FBI has gathered statistics on crime since 1960.  The FBI data shows that recorded levels of violent crime increased dramatically from 1960 to 1991, rising nearly five-fold.   Obviously, it is unknown how much of the increase is due to improved tracking and record-keeping.  Violent crime peaked at 758 incidents per 100,000 people in 1991.  Since 1991, all classes of violent crime have decreased dramatically.  The murder rate has fallen by 56%; rape has declined 36%; robbery is down 64%; and aggravated assault is down by 49%.   The murder rate in 2015 is lower than any year since 1960, except for the preceding year, 2014.  


United States Violent Crime, 1991 – 2025
The rate of all classes of violent crime has declined by 54% since 1991. 
 
The rate of murder has declined by 56%.  
It might be noted that most of the decline in murder rates occurred under Democratic presidents.


The rate of forcible rape has declined less than other types of violent crime; by only 36%.
The rate of robbery is down 64%, and the rate of aggravated assault is down 49%.

United States Violent Crime, 1960 – 2015

The FBI began compiling a national database on violent crime in 1960.   The complete record shows the rise and fall of crime over the past 65 years.

The murder rate in 2015 is lower than any other year since 1960, except for 2014.  It is likely that medical advances have helped to reduce the incidence of violent death.  The same improvements in trauma care that have saved lives on the battlefield have probably saved lives in hospital emergency rooms over the past two decades.
Of all violent crimes, the rate of forcible rape shows the greatest increase since 1960, and the smallest decline since 1991.  Efforts over the past decades to improve reporting may be reflected in the higher rate.  Nevertheless, the poor results in reducing rape is a national disgrace.  Reducing rape will require broader education and prevention efforts than those needed to control other crimes.
The rate of aggravated assault has declined by 49% since 1991.   Except for the year 2014, the rate in 2015 is lower than in any year since 1974.
The robbery rate in the United States has declined by 64 percent since 1991.  The robbery rate in 2015 was lower than in any year since 1966.

Causes and Conclusions
The decline in America crime since the early 1990s is truly remarkable.  It is even more remarkable, considering that during this period crime reporting probably improved through the use of information technology.  The decline in crime through the past 25 years is as striking and difficult to explain as was the increase in crime which occurred in the preceding 25 years.  


Violent crime in the United States of all kinds experienced a protracted rise from 1960 through 1991.  The summary statistics are dominated by aggravated assault and robbery, but all kinds of violent crime increased about four or five fold during that period.   In 1991, the rate of violent crime began a long, steady fall, declining about 50% over the next 25 years.  Violent crime reached a minimum in 2014, followed by a slight up-tick in 2015.

Theories for the Rise and Fall of Violent Crime
Various theories have been proposed to explain the long decline.  Age is known to be a major factor in the perpetrators of violent crime, with crime peaking at about age 18.   It has been suggested that demographic shifts in the population are responsible for the decline in crime, but the decline of 18-year-olds in the population is less than the decline in crime.

A strong case can be made for environmental exposure to lead in childhood as a cause of the rise and fall of crime rates.  Data going back to the late 1870s shows a correlation between lead exposure and crime, with a lag time of slightly more than 20 years.

And the National Rifle Association, naturally, attributes the decline in crime to higher rates of gun ownership in the United States.  This conclusion is challenged by others taking a more detailed look at the data.

Economists Steven Dubner and Steven Levitt, authors of Freekonomics, proposed another theory, noting that the nationwide decline in crime followed the legalization of abortion by twenty years.  They further noted that states that legalized abortion a few years before the Roe v. Wade decision showed an earlier decline in crime rates.  Like other issues in the abortion debate, these results were challenged; nevertheless, Dubner and Levitt maintain that data support their conclusion.

A final and important issue is the incarceration rate in the United States.  The incarceration rate rose sharply in the 1980s and 1990s, rising about five-fold from 1972 to 2008.   The high incarceration rate was the result of stricter sentencing guidlines nationwide, and a no-tolerance program relating to the war on drug use.  Although the United States has only 4.4 percent of the world's population, this country holds 22 percent of the world's prison population.  There is a strong racial disparity in imprisonment; black men are imprisoned at a rate about six times higher than the rate for white men.   It is notable that crimes of forcible rape have decline far less than other kinds of violent crime. Whatever factor is causing the decline in violent crime is only partly effective in preventing forcible rape.

The high incarceration rate appears to broadly correlate to the decline in crime rate seen in the past twenty-five years.  And the reversal of incarceration rates which began in 2008 may play a part in the rise in crime rates now occuring in many cities in 2016.   Further work is needed to see if cities with greater relaxation in incarceration rates experienced a greater reversal in the trend crime rates.

There is still much to learn about the causes of violent crime, and the policies necessary to keep crime low.  But the fundamental point of this blog post is that violent crime in the United States is now at the lowest point in forty years.  The Republican view that the United States is now beset by violent crime as a consequence of the Obama presidency is simply a lie.  Donald Trump's address in which he claims to be the "law and order candidate" would have been appropriate in 1992, but like many other aspects of his candidacy, is simply obsolete, a throwback not appropriate to today's society.
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References

Donald Trump Acceptance Speech

United States Population

FBI Crime Statistics
Data from 1960.

Academic paper, Crime trends in Europe over centuries

Wikimedia charts have references and citation info.

Incarceration Rate
detailed data from 1980, chart to 1920.

Historical Corrections Statistics in the United States, 1850-1984

Freekonomics correlation between abortion and crime

Age and Crime
Duplicate material with the following.  Unclear which source is original.
Encyclopedia of Crime and Justice
COPYRIGHT 2002 The Gale Group Inc.

Lead exposure and Crime
Remarkable and strong correlation between childhood lead exposure and crime, following a lag of 23 years. 

Gun ownership and Crime Rate.  Note that the charts do not specify households owning guns, but rather only the number of privately owned guns.