The rate of violent crime in the United States in 2015 is the
lowest in forty-five years, except for the preceding year, 2014. Nevertheless, Republican candidates and conservative
media are portraying the country as beset by violent crime. The rise and fall of violent crime over the past 55 years
deserves more serious treatment.
Donald Trump made Law and Order one of the main themes of
his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention. Trump painted a picture of America torn by
violent crime, as seen in a few excerpts from his speech below. Conservative news channels, such as FOX News,
One America Network, and talk radio have also made crime a major issue in the
campaign, in an attempt to discredit the Obama administration and the Democratic Party.
Donald Trump,
Acceptance Speech at the Republican National Convention, 2016:
“I have a
message for all of you: the crime and violence that today afflicts our nation
will soon come to an end. “
“Decades of
progress made in bringing down crime are now being reversed by this
Administration’s rollback of criminal enforcement.”
“Homicides
last year increased by 17% in America’s fifty largest cities. That’s the
largest increase in 25 years. In our nation’s capital, killings have risen by
50 percent. They are up nearly 60% in nearby Baltimore.”
“I will
restore law and order our country.…I am the Law And Order candidate. “
But let’s look at the data.
The FBI has gathered statistics on crime since 1960. The FBI data shows that recorded levels of violent
crime increased dramatically from 1960 to 1991, rising nearly five-fold. Obviously, it is unknown how much of the
increase is due to improved tracking and record-keeping. Violent crime peaked at 758 incidents per
100,000 people in 1991. Since 1991, all
classes of violent crime have decreased dramatically. The murder rate has fallen by 56%; rape has
declined 36%; robbery is down 64%; and aggravated assault is down by 49%. The
murder rate in 2015 is lower than any year since 1960, except for the preceding
year, 2014.
United
States Violent Crime, 1991 – 2025
The rate of all classes of violent crime has declined by 54%
since 1991.
The rate of murder has declined by 56%.
It might be noted that most of the decline in murder rates occurred under Democratic presidents.
The rate of forcible rape has declined less than other types of violent crime; by only 36%.
The rate of robbery is down 64%, and the rate of aggravated assault is down 49%.
United
States Violent Crime, 1960 – 2015
The FBI began compiling a national database on violent crime in 1960. The complete record shows the rise and fall of crime over the past 65 years.
The murder rate in 2015 is lower than any other year since 1960, except for 2014. It is likely that medical advances have helped to reduce the incidence of violent death. The same improvements in trauma care that have saved lives on the battlefield have probably saved lives in hospital emergency rooms over the past two decades.
Of all violent crimes, the rate of forcible rape shows the greatest increase since 1960, and the smallest decline since 1991. Efforts over the past decades to improve reporting may be reflected in the higher rate. Nevertheless, the poor results in reducing rape is a national disgrace. Reducing rape will require broader education and prevention efforts than those needed to control other crimes.
The rate of aggravated assault has declined by 49% since 1991. Except for the year 2014, the rate in 2015 is lower than in any year since 1974.
The robbery rate in the United States has declined by 64 percent since 1991. The robbery rate in 2015 was lower than in any year since 1966.
Causes and Conclusions
The decline in America crime since the early 1990s is truly remarkable. It is even more remarkable, considering that during this period crime reporting probably improved through the use of information technology. The decline in crime through the past 25 years is as striking and difficult to explain as was the increase in crime which occurred in the preceding 25 years.
Violent crime in the United States of all kinds experienced a protracted rise from 1960 through 1991. The summary statistics are dominated by aggravated assault and robbery, but all kinds of violent crime increased about four or five fold during that period. In 1991, the rate of violent crime began a long, steady fall, declining about 50% over the next 25 years. Violent crime reached a minimum in 2014, followed by a slight up-tick in 2015.
Theories for the Rise and Fall of Violent Crime
Various theories have been proposed to explain the long decline. Age is known to be a major factor in the perpetrators of violent crime, with crime peaking at about age 18. It has been suggested that demographic shifts in the population are responsible for the decline in crime, but the decline of 18-year-olds in the population is less than the decline in crime.
A strong case can be made for environmental exposure to lead in childhood as a cause of the rise and fall of crime rates. Data going back to the late 1870s shows a correlation between lead exposure and crime, with a lag time of slightly more than 20 years.
And the National Rifle Association, naturally, attributes the decline in crime to higher rates of gun ownership in the United States. This conclusion is challenged by others taking a more detailed look at the data.
Economists Steven Dubner and Steven Levitt, authors of Freekonomics, proposed another theory, noting that the nationwide decline in crime followed the legalization of abortion by twenty years. They further noted that states that legalized abortion a few years before the Roe v. Wade decision showed an earlier decline in crime rates. Like other issues in the abortion debate, these results were challenged; nevertheless, Dubner and Levitt maintain that data support their conclusion.
A final and important issue is the incarceration rate in the United States. The incarceration rate rose sharply in the 1980s and 1990s, rising about five-fold from 1972 to 2008. The high incarceration rate was the result of stricter sentencing guidlines nationwide, and a no-tolerance program relating to the war on drug use. Although the United States has only 4.4 percent of the world's population, this country holds 22 percent of the world's prison population. There is a strong racial disparity in imprisonment; black men are imprisoned at a rate about six times higher than the rate for white men. It is notable that crimes of forcible rape have decline far less than other kinds of violent crime. Whatever factor is causing the decline in violent crime is only partly effective in preventing forcible rape.
The high incarceration rate appears to broadly correlate to the decline in crime rate seen in the past twenty-five years. And the reversal of incarceration rates which began in 2008 may play a part in the rise in crime rates now occuring in many cities in 2016. Further work is needed to see if cities with greater relaxation in incarceration rates experienced a greater reversal in the trend crime rates.
There is still much to learn about the causes of violent crime, and the policies necessary to keep crime low. But the fundamental point of this blog post is that violent crime in the United States is now at the lowest point in forty years. The Republican view that the United States is now beset by violent crime as a consequence of the Obama presidency is simply a lie. Donald Trump's address in which he claims to be the "law and order candidate" would have been appropriate in 1992, but like many other aspects of his candidacy, is simply obsolete, a throwback not appropriate to today's society.
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References
Theories for the Rise and Fall of Violent Crime
Various theories have been proposed to explain the long decline. Age is known to be a major factor in the perpetrators of violent crime, with crime peaking at about age 18. It has been suggested that demographic shifts in the population are responsible for the decline in crime, but the decline of 18-year-olds in the population is less than the decline in crime.
A strong case can be made for environmental exposure to lead in childhood as a cause of the rise and fall of crime rates. Data going back to the late 1870s shows a correlation between lead exposure and crime, with a lag time of slightly more than 20 years.
And the National Rifle Association, naturally, attributes the decline in crime to higher rates of gun ownership in the United States. This conclusion is challenged by others taking a more detailed look at the data.
Economists Steven Dubner and Steven Levitt, authors of Freekonomics, proposed another theory, noting that the nationwide decline in crime followed the legalization of abortion by twenty years. They further noted that states that legalized abortion a few years before the Roe v. Wade decision showed an earlier decline in crime rates. Like other issues in the abortion debate, these results were challenged; nevertheless, Dubner and Levitt maintain that data support their conclusion.
A final and important issue is the incarceration rate in the United States. The incarceration rate rose sharply in the 1980s and 1990s, rising about five-fold from 1972 to 2008. The high incarceration rate was the result of stricter sentencing guidlines nationwide, and a no-tolerance program relating to the war on drug use. Although the United States has only 4.4 percent of the world's population, this country holds 22 percent of the world's prison population. There is a strong racial disparity in imprisonment; black men are imprisoned at a rate about six times higher than the rate for white men. It is notable that crimes of forcible rape have decline far less than other kinds of violent crime. Whatever factor is causing the decline in violent crime is only partly effective in preventing forcible rape.
The high incarceration rate appears to broadly correlate to the decline in crime rate seen in the past twenty-five years. And the reversal of incarceration rates which began in 2008 may play a part in the rise in crime rates now occuring in many cities in 2016. Further work is needed to see if cities with greater relaxation in incarceration rates experienced a greater reversal in the trend crime rates.
There is still much to learn about the causes of violent crime, and the policies necessary to keep crime low. But the fundamental point of this blog post is that violent crime in the United States is now at the lowest point in forty years. The Republican view that the United States is now beset by violent crime as a consequence of the Obama presidency is simply a lie. Donald Trump's address in which he claims to be the "law and order candidate" would have been appropriate in 1992, but like many other aspects of his candidacy, is simply obsolete, a throwback not appropriate to today's society.
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References
Donald Trump Acceptance Speech
United States Population
FBI Crime Statistics
Data from 1960.
Academic paper, Crime trends in Europe over centuries
Wikimedia charts have references and citation info.
Incarceration Rate
detailed data from 1980, chart to 1920.
Historical Corrections Statistics in the United States, 1850-1984
Freekonomics correlation between abortion and crime
Age and Crime
Duplicate material with the following.
Unclear which source is original.
Encyclopedia of Crime and Justice
COPYRIGHT 2002 The Gale Group Inc.
COPYRIGHT 2002 The Gale Group Inc.
Lead exposure and Crime
Remarkable and strong correlation between childhood lead exposure and
crime, following a lag of 23 years.
Gun ownership and Crime Rate.
Note that the charts do not specify households owning guns, but rather
only the number of privately owned guns.
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