Democrats, The Government Shutdown, and the Trolley Problem

 On Sunday, November 9th, the US Senate voted 60 to 40 to pass a continuing resolution to reopen the US government, which had been closed for 40 days.  Seven moderate Democrats and one Independent joined Republicans in passing the resolution, to reach the required supermajority of 60 votes to invoke cloture and force a vote on the bill.  The resolution did not contain Democrats’ single, key demand, which was a continuation of the expanded ACA healthcare insurance subsidies for people making more than 4x the poverty level.  The expansion of ACA subsidies was enacted in 2021 as part of Biden’s American Rescue Plan Act, post-covid economic stimulus package.

When the Senate passed the continuing resolution to end the record-breaking government shutdown, Democrats across the country were outraged.  Social media exploded with withering criticism of the Senators who agreed to end the shutdown.  House Democrats, celebrities, late-night hosts and rank & file Democrats almost universally condemned the Senators for “caving” on the confrontation.  

I disagree.  From the outset, I thought that the government shutdown was ill-considered and counter-productive, likely to lead to worse outcomes than doing nothing.  I already published a post on the topic on April 14, 2025, when a government shutdown was proposed in the spring.  

For Democrats, the government shutdown was a trolley problem.  On one track were the people receiving expanded ACA subsidies, and on the other track were the people on food stamps, federal workers, citizens and business using air travel, and other government services of benefit to society.  Democrats threw the trolley switch to try to protect people on ACA subsidies, but threatening people on SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program), federal employees and other Americans.  Democrats believed, wrongly, that Republicans would compromise to restore reliable air traffic, or feel a sense of responsibility to SNAP recipients and throw the switch back.

By early November, the long-term consequences of the shutdown were becoming apparent.  Approximately 3 million federal workers had not been paid for a month.  Federal services, programs, grants and data-collection were all suspended.  In particular, SNAP was suspended, with the immediate prospect that 42 million people dependent on food stamps would be without sufficient food.  And unpaid air-traffic controllers were showing their irritation by creating flight delays, causing the FAA to preemptively cancel thousands of flights, culminating in the cancellation of nearly 3000 flights on November 9th.

Democrats saw this chaos as evidence that Republicans would soon compromise on ACA subsidies.  Nothing could be farther from the truth.  Republicans had absolutely no intention of giving Democrats a legislative win.  If Democrats gave just a moment’s consideration into Republicans’ options, they would have realized that the Trump administration would treat the government shutdown as an opportunity to expand authoritarian control and accelerate the dismantling of functioning government, and above all, to deny Democrats a legislative victory.  

The path forward for Republicans was clear.  First, the Trump administration would have let the shutdown persist until holiday flight travel was hopelessly snarled, and food stamp recipients were suffering malnutrition by the millions.  Then, Trump would militarize air traffic control, declaring all civilian air traffic controllers military inductees.  This would solve the air traffic crisis, and give Trump unprecedented power over private-sector air transportation.  After the chaos and uncertainty of thousands of flight cancellations, restoration of confidence in air travel would be welcomed by the traveling public.  Next, Trump would declare that Congress was derelict in its duties to provide a budget, and issue an emergency order to the Treasury to fund the military and other Republican priorities (but not food stamps).  This would be counter to Constitutional processes, but it is doubtful that the Supreme Court would rule against Trump in an extended crisis.  Third, eventually, he would convince the Republican Senate to end the filibuster, and pass a flurry of voter suppression bills, to ensure that Democrats did not win elections in 2026 or 2028.  

I’m a chess player.  In a situation of conflict, I put myself in my opponent’s shoes, and think about what my opponent is likely to do in response to my actions.  Democrats failed to do that before beginning the government shut-down.  Even a moment’s reflection from the Republican perspective would show that there was no chance in hell that Republicans would compromise with Democrats on the ACA subsidies.  Further, there was no chance that Republicans would responsibly protect SNAP recipients from the Democratic diversion of the trolley onto the track for people on food stamps.  Republicans hate social welfare programs and would celebrate the opportunity to shut down the food stamp program.  From the outset, it was apparent that the shutdown would harm marginalized people – the very people that Democrats claim to defend.

In the end, the legislation passed included a continuing resolution to fund the government at current levels through January 30, 2026.  Three appropriations bills were also passed, funding various agencies through September 30th, 2026, the end of the standard fiscal year.   SNAP benefits were among the appropriations funded through September.  Federal employees will receive back-pay, and mass firings will be reversed.  This action leaves nine more appropriations bills to be negotiated and passed by January 30th.  

The approved bill also included a provision allowing a number of Republican Senators to sue the Justice Department for invasion of privacy, in regard to the FBI investigation into the well-documented attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 election.  Each Senator who was investigated could receive up to $500,000 and compensation for legal fees.  This provision is controversial, even among Republicans, and House Speaker Johnson has promised a vote next week to repeal that provision.  But repeal would require another supermajority vote in the Senate and President Trump’s signature, so the repeal vote in the House is just political theater.

I think the shutdown, and the Democratic response to the shutdown, shows that today’s Democratic party has lost its heart, its soul and its collective mind in panic over Trump’s authoritarianism.  I am most disappointed that the Democratic party has completely lost sight of caring for the needs of people.  Today’s Democratic party is willing to harm people for an unrealistic hope of political gain.  Dems were foolish regarding their chances of success, and heartless in their decision on the trolley problem.  Republicans were absolutely never going to compromise on ACA, so the trolley would hit both sets of victims.

Republicans decisively won the elections in 2024, at all levels.  At this time, Democrats simply do not have the votes for constitutional resistance, and un-constitutional resistance would take the country into uncharted territory.  Democrats need to realize that when there's chaos in society, before long, citizens will be happy for an authoritarian to step in and end the chaos.  That's the real hazard of a protracted shut-down.  It would have been an opportunity for Trump to expand authoritarian control, to dismantle more of the federal government and for Republicans to put in place mechanisms to ensure permanent one-party rule.  I'm glad the eight Democratic and Independent Senators voted to restore funding.  These Senators saved the nation from a progressive disaster.

Without question, American democracy is threatened by Trumpian authoritarianism.  But we have to be smarter about the kind of resistance to Trump.  Our bulwark is the Constitution, our institutions, and our long history as a representative democracy.  We will have elections in another year, if Democrats do not provide justification for cancelling those elections.  There will be bitter fights over the mid-cycle gerrymandering, but we will still have elections.  The public can be fooled for a while, but not for long.   We will have an election for a new president in 2028, and the public will render judgment on Trump and his legacy.  I am confident that we will begin rebuilding in 2029, and build a stronger nation, based upon the values of governmental responsibility, truth, and care for our citizens.
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Appendix
Background for the 2025 Government Shutdown.
On October 31,, 2025, the US Federal government shut down due to a failure of Congress to pass a budget or continuing resolution to fund the government.  Republicans, with a narrow majority in both chambers, had constructed their proposed 2026 budget with no input from Democrats.  The Democrats demanded a single item to support the Republican budget – the extension of a health-insurance subsidy tied to the Affordable Care Act.  The insurance subsidy was included for low-income families in the original ACA legislation of 2010.  In 2021, a Democratically-controlled Congress expanded those subsidies, to include families making more the 4x the minimum wage.  The expanded subsidy was scheduled to expire in November 2025.  According to Google, 22 million people use the expanded subsidy to lower their insurance costs.  Online sources cast some doubt on that number, suggesting that the real number is about 11 million people.  There may be some confusion between the people receiving any ACA subsidies, and the people with relatively higher income receiving the expanded subsidy.  

On November 12, the House of Representatives passed the revised Continuing Resolution passed by the Senate, ending the eleventh government shutdown at a record 42 days. Democrats in the Senate had invoked the privilege of the filibuster to block passage of the bill for 40 days.  By Senate rules, a super-majority of 60 votes was necessary to end debate and force a vote on the bill.  Republicans had only 52 votes, with one Republican dissenter.  

By mid-November, the stakes in the conflict grew higher.  Air traffic controllers had not been paid in over a month, but were required to still work.  The controllers began slow-downs and walk-outs to put pressure on Congress to end the stalemate.  The FAA curtailed permitted flights, resulting in cancellations ranging from 1000 flights to 3000 flights per day.  Three million federal employees are not receiving paychecks.  And most importantly, 42 million Americans who receive SNAP (food stamp) benefits have stopped receiving benefits as of the beginning of the month.  There were legal battles about whether states can step in to temporarily fund the program, whether available funding should be used until depleted, and whether the federal government is permitted to make partial payments with available funds.  

The deal with Republicans funds the government through the end of January, 2026, and funding for some agencies through September, 2026.  The deal will reverse firings of federal employees during the shutdown, provide back-pay for federal employees, and fully fund SNAP through September 2026.
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The image in this post was generated by a free on-line AI program.
References:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_United_States_federal_government_shutdown#Affordable_Care_Act_subsidies

https://cei.org/blog/obamacares-subsidy-cliff-how-many-enrollees-are-actually-affected/

Democrats and the Strategy of a Government Shutdown

 I witnessed a car accident the other day.  A woman was in a great hurry, and illegally passed me as I approached a line of cars at a stoplight.  The light turned green, and the line of cars didn’t move.  The driver pulled into the left-turn-only lane, sped past the 6 or 8 eight cars at the light, and then crashed into a jeep that was slowly pulling left into the center of the intersection.  When the intersection cleared, I saw that an 18-wheeler was parked, blocking the right lane as the guys unloaded something.  The woman was just getting out of her car, and the entire right side of her car was demolished.  She did not consider the reasonable consequences of going outside the norms of driving behavior and she did not consider the potential actions of others.  Her ill-considered, counter-productive action meant that she did not accomplish her goal of arriving somewhere quickly, and made the situation substantially worse for herself and others.

I see an analogy between the reckless driver and Democrats trying to resist the administration of Donald Trump.  There is a loud outcry from rank-and-file Democrats and progressives for elected representatives to “Do Something”, despite the fact that Republicans hold majorities in the House of Representatives, the Senate and the Supreme Court, and the presidency.  One of the recent widely-supported proposed actions was for Senate Democrats to shut down the government.  Like the actions of the driver in the car collision, shutting down the government would be ill-considered and counterproductive.  Let’s look at how that could have happened, and the likely consequences.

Government Shutdown
In recent years, government shutdowns have become a recurring tactic in our polarized political climate.    There have been ten government shutdowns since 1980, with varying severity in the impact on citizens.  Setting the budget has become a political football, subject to brinkmanship by aggrieved parties or coalitions unhappy with other policies enacted by the majority.  In general, the public has been very unhappy with the disruption in government services, and punished the responsible party in the subsequent election.

Congress is required by law to pass annual appropriations bills to fund the US Federal government.  In recent years, the process of passing a budget has become more difficult, as partisan and intra-partisan differences have prevented the formation of clear majorities in the House and Senate.  The appropriations themselves have become more contentious reflecting polarization of the parties and increasing pressure of the cumulative Federal debt.  While Republicans hold a majority in the House, there is a faction of budget hawks who recognize the danger of further increases in federal debt.  Crafting a budget that appeases the budget hawks without cutting critical government services or raising taxes is actually impossible.  That sets the stage for what follows.

Last month, after failing to construct a budget which would earn a majority of votes in the House, Speaker Johnson crafted a continuing resolution to continue to fund the government for six months, while negotiations continue on the annual budget.  The continuing resolution then moved to the Senate.  Under the arcane rules of the Senate, 60 votes were required to move the bill to the floor for a majority vote.  This was the opportunity for Senate Democrats to “resist” President Trump refusing to allow a vote on the continuing resolution, and thereby shutting down the government.  Instead, nine Democrats and one Independent voted with Republicans to allow the resolution to come to the floor, and avoid a government shutdown.  

House Democrats and many rank-and-file Democrats were incensed that Senate Democrats *caved* and allowed the Republican budget to pass, instead of shutting down the government.  But like the driver rushing through an intersection, the advocates of the shutdown failed to consider the possible consequences of that action.  

First and foremost, Democrats would be blamed for the interruption of critical government services.  Most services subject to annual appropriations would be shut down.  To the best of my understanding, food stamps would be stopped.  Medicaid would be stopped.  New enrollments for Social Security and Medicare would be stopped.  Veterans’ health benefits would be stopped.  Other services, including national parks would be stopped, and technical support for ongoing services, such as weather forecasting and flight control, would be stopped.  Republicans don’t like many of these programs and would be thrilled to shut them down, if they could do it without political liability.  They would be happy to allow Democrats to shut down the government and take the blame.

Once the government was shut down, Democrats would be powerless to start it up again.  Republicans would be happy to let the country wallow in misery, possibly for months, while continuing to blame Democrats for the dysfunction.  Ultimately, Democrats would be forced to beg Republicans to reopen the government.  The negotiations would require massive concessions from Democrats on unrelated Republican priorities to undo what Democrats brought on themselves.  There is no question in my mind that the public would support Republicans in assigning blame for the disruption to Democrats.

Consider a thought experiment, if Democrats had shut down the government in March.  The government would still be closed.  President Trump would have initiated his “reciprocal tariffs”, and the stock market would have crashed, just as it did last week.  But in our thought experiment, who would be blamed for the economic disruption?  The public would blame the Democrats.  

There is no leverage in causing your opponent to do what he wants to do anyway.  Republicans would not miraculously be guilted into re-opening the government, nor would it impede President Trump.  Instead, a government shut-down would enable and accelerate President Trump’s on-going program to dismantle the federal government.  

As political strategist James Carville has argued, it is essential that Democrats do nothing that would allow Republicans to deflect blame for the economic losses and societal dysfunction that results from their policies.   In polling before the 2024 election, voters said that the economy was their top issue.  A strong majority of voters said that they believed that Donald Trump would handle the economy better than Kamala Harris.  Various polling numbers on the economy favored Trump over Harris by margins of 54% -45%; 50% - 42%; and 66% -33%.  I recall seeing a poll showing that even among Democrats, a majority thought Trump would handle the economy better than Harris.  This strange belief runs counter to the actual performance of the economy under multiple Democratic presidencies, but it is deeply entrenched in the American psyche.

There will be more opportunities for Democrats to shut down the government between now and the mid-term elections.  There will be required votes to lift the federal debt ceiling.  The current continuing resolution will expire in September, requiring another budget bill.  And there will be more budget and debt votes next year in order to keep the government open.  

Democrats need to understand the shutting down the government will cause serious and continuing harm to the citizens of the country, including the most vulnerable.  Shutting down the government would play into the hands of Republicans, and Democrats would be powerless to reverse the damage.   Further, for long-term political success, voters need to be dissuaded from the idea that Republicans handle the economy better than Democrats.  For that to happen, Democrats need to step back and let voters see the consequences of Republican economic policies.  It is a painful process, but it’s the only way to restore trust in Democratic economic policies, win elections and make policies that are good for the people.

“Doing Something” without considering the consequences of the action is like blindly driving into an intersection from the wrong lane.  Democrats would be unlikely to achieve their goal of obstructing the Trump administration, and would likely do harm the public and themselves.

References
https://news.gallup.com/poll/651719/economy-important-issue-2024-presidential-vote.aspx
https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/50794-the-economy-what-2024-voters-want-and-which-candidate-they-trust
https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/50794-the-economy-what-2024-voters-want-and-which-candidate-they-trust
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/09/09/issues-and-the-2024-election/
https://nypost.com/2024/08/11/us-news/voters-think-trump-will-make-them-richer-but-trust-harris-on-economy-poll/
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/25/opinion/democrats-trump-congress.html

The photo of a car accident is from an unknown Internet source and is used without permission and not for profit.  It will be removed upon request.