I witnessed a car accident the other day. A woman was in a great hurry, and illegally passed me as I approached a line of cars at a stoplight. The light turned green, and the line of cars didn’t move. The driver pulled into the left-turn-only lane, sped past the 6 or 8 eight cars at the light, and then crashed into a jeep that was slowly pulling left into the center of the intersection. When the intersection cleared, I saw that an 18-wheeler was parked, blocking the right lane as the guys unloaded something. The woman was just getting out of her car, and the entire right side of her car was demolished. She did not consider the reasonable consequences of going outside the norms of driving behavior and she did not consider the potential actions of others. Her ill-considered, counter-productive action meant that she did not accomplish her goal of arriving somewhere quickly, and made the situation substantially worse for herself and others.
I see an analogy between the reckless driver and Democrats trying to resist the administration of Donald Trump. There is a loud outcry from rank-and-file Democrats and progressives for elected representatives to “Do Something”, despite the fact that Republicans hold majorities in the House of Representatives, the Senate and the Supreme Court, and the presidency. One of the recent widely-supported proposed actions was for Senate Democrats to shut down the government. Like the actions of the driver in the car collision, shutting down the government would be ill-considered and counterproductive. Let’s look at how that could have happened, and the likely consequences.
Government Shutdown
In recent years, government shutdowns have become a recurring tactic in our polarized political climate. There have been ten government shutdowns since 1980, with varying severity in the impact on citizens. Setting the budget has become a political football, subject to brinkmanship by aggrieved parties or coalitions unhappy with other policies enacted by the majority. In general, the public has been very unhappy with the disruption in government services, and punished the responsible party in the subsequent election.
Congress is required by law to pass annual appropriations bills to fund the US Federal government. In recent years, the process of passing a budget has become more difficult, as partisan and intra-partisan differences have prevented the formation of clear majorities in the House and Senate. The appropriations themselves have become more contentious reflecting polarization of the parties and increasing pressure of the cumulative Federal debt. While Republicans hold a majority in the House, there is a faction of budget hawks who recognize the danger of further increases in federal debt. Crafting a budget that appeases the budget hawks without cutting critical government services or raising taxes is actually impossible. That sets the stage for what follows.
Last month, after failing to construct a budget which would earn a majority of votes in the House, Speaker Johnson crafted a continuing resolution to continue to fund the government for six months, while negotiations continue on the annual budget. The continuing resolution then moved to the Senate. Under the arcane rules of the Senate, 60 votes were required to move the bill to the floor for a majority vote. This was the opportunity for Senate Democrats to “resist” President Trump refusing to allow a vote on the continuing resolution, and thereby shutting down the government. Instead, nine Democrats and one Independent voted with Republicans to allow the resolution to come to the floor, and avoid a government shutdown.
House Democrats and many rank-and-file Democrats were incensed that Senate Democrats *caved* and allowed the Republican budget to pass, instead of shutting down the government. But like the driver rushing through an intersection, the advocates of the shutdown failed to consider the possible consequences of that action.
First and foremost, Democrats would be blamed for the interruption of critical government services. Most services subject to annual appropriations would be shut down. To the best of my understanding, food stamps would be stopped. Medicaid would be stopped. New enrollments for Social Security and Medicare would be stopped. Veterans’ health benefits would be stopped. Other services, including national parks would be stopped, and technical support for ongoing services, such as weather forecasting and flight control, would be stopped. Republicans don’t like many of these programs and would be thrilled to shut them down, if they could do it without political liability. They would be happy to allow Democrats to shut down the government and take the blame.
Once the government was shut down, Democrats would be powerless to start it up again. Republicans would be happy to let the country wallow in misery, possibly for months, while continuing to blame Democrats for the dysfunction. Ultimately, Democrats would be forced to beg Republicans to reopen the government. The negotiations would require massive concessions from Democrats on unrelated Republican priorities to undo what Democrats brought on themselves. There is no question in my mind that the public would support Republicans in assigning blame for the disruption to Democrats.
Consider a thought experiment, if Democrats had shut down the government in March. The government would still be closed. President Trump would have initiated his “reciprocal tariffs”, and the stock market would have crashed, just as it did last week. But in our thought experiment, who would be blamed for the economic disruption? The public would blame the Democrats.
There is no leverage in causing your opponent to do what he wants to do anyway. Republicans would not miraculously be guilted into re-opening the government, nor would it impede President Trump. Instead, a government shut-down would enable and accelerate President Trump’s on-going program to dismantle the federal government.
As political strategist James Carville has argued, it is essential that Democrats do nothing that would allow Republicans to deflect blame for the economic losses and societal dysfunction that results from their policies. In polling before the 2024 election, voters said that the economy was their top issue. A strong majority of voters said that they believed that Donald Trump would handle the economy better than Kamala Harris. Various polling numbers on the economy favored Trump over Harris by margins of 54% -45%; 50% - 42%; and 66% -33%. I recall seeing a poll showing that even among Democrats, a majority thought Trump would handle the economy better than Harris. This strange belief runs counter to the actual performance of the economy under multiple Democratic presidencies, but it is deeply entrenched in the American psyche.
There will be more opportunities for Democrats to shut down the government between now and the mid-term elections. There will be required votes to lift the federal debt ceiling. The current continuing resolution will expire in September, requiring another budget bill. And there will be more budget and debt votes next year in order to keep the government open.
Democrats need to understand the shutting down the government will cause serious and continuing harm to the citizens of the country, including the most vulnerable. Shutting down the government would play into the hands of Republicans, and Democrats would be powerless to reverse the damage. Further, for long-term political success, voters need to be dissuaded from the idea that Republicans handle the economy better than Democrats. For that to happen, Democrats need to step back and let voters see the consequences of Republican economic policies. It is a painful process, but it’s the only way to restore trust in Democratic economic policies, win elections and make policies that are good for the people.
“Doing Something” without considering the consequences of the action is like blindly driving into an intersection from the wrong lane. Democrats would be unlikely to achieve their goal of obstructing the Trump administration, and would likely do harm the public and themselves.
References
https://news.gallup.com/poll/651719/economy-important-issue-2024-presidential-vote.aspx
https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/50794-the-economy-what-2024-voters-want-and-which-candidate-they-trust
https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/50794-the-economy-what-2024-voters-want-and-which-candidate-they-trust
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/09/09/issues-and-the-2024-election/
https://nypost.com/2024/08/11/us-news/voters-think-trump-will-make-them-richer-but-trust-harris-on-economy-poll/
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/25/opinion/democrats-trump-congress.html
The photo of a car accident is from an unknown Internet source and is used without permission and not for profit. It will be removed upon request.
