Thanks to my daughter Kathy for naming this blog.

















Bald Eagle in Anchorage, Alaska

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Sunday, October 20, 2024

One Hundred and Twelve Radical Policy Ideas

This is a list of radical policy proposals, mostly at the Federal level.  These proposals reflect my view that the United States Federal Government is the finest institution on earth.  I believe that the U.S. government should do more to establish justice, promote the general welfare and secure the blessings of liberty for ourselves and our posterity.  I believe that as a society grows more prosperous, its government should grow as a proportion of the economy and national activity.  Since the United States is the wealthiest society in the world, its government should be the largest, proportionally, as a percentage of GDP, but it is not.  There are persistent attempts to limit government and stymie its mission.  I believe that the idea of “small government” as proposed by conservatives is false and detrimental to the general welfare of the country (see my earlier post, “The Problem of Governing Least”  https://debatablypolitical.blogspot.com/2022/01/the-problem-with-governing-least.html). 

What qualifies as a radical policy proposal?  I chose three criteria for determining ideas that made the list.  First, the ideas had to represent a sharp break from long-standing policies or practices.   Second, the ideas had to make a meaningful positive impact on some aspect of American (or global) life.  Third, the ideas are politically controversial and highly unlikely to be realized in my lifetime. 

Theories of progress across various fields all note a pattern.  A system becomes established, and gains are made incrementally according to the rules and standards of that system.  Eventually, however, problems increasingly accumulate as the previous paradigm no longer represents current conditions or information.  After a period of stagnation, a new paradigm is needed, requiring radical change in how people think and how the system works.  Discussion of this notion of punctuated change include Joseph Schumpeter’s idea of Creative Destruction, Thomas Kuhn’s “The Structure of Scientific Revolutions”, and M. Hammer and J. Champy’s “Reengineering the Corporation”.  In the biological world, Stephen J. Gould makes an analogous point about punctuated equilibrium in evolution. 

 Martin Luther, nailing 95 radical theses to the door of the cathedral.  Artist unknown.

Inefficient, failing institutions persist of their own inertia, long after the need for change is apparent.  At these times, radical or revolutionary changes are needed to break out of the prior constraining mold and make new progress.  For American society and government, that time is now.  We are stuck in a rut of doing things badly, simply because that’s how things have always been done.  We cannot progress without undoing some of the constraining parts of our system, including modifying the constitution.  But it may take years before that conclusion is generally recognized. 

This post is a list of proposals for radical change.  The intent of these proposals is many fold:

>  To improve fairness for all citizens in representative government, taxation, accumulation of wealth and treatment under the law.
>  To improve prosperity for working generations.
>  To take responsibility for our government debt, our climate and the health of the environment, instead of putting these burdens on future generations.
>  To have more empathy for those citizens struggling to find prosperity, and for potential immigrants seeking a better life in this country.
>  To achieve progress in improving the efficiency of government, the justice system, transportation, public safety, public health and science.

“The creative personality is always one that looks on the world as fit for change and on himself as an instrument of change.  Otherwise, what are you creating for?  If the world is perfectly all right the way it is, you have no place in it.  The creative personality thinks of the world as a canvas for change and of himself as a divine agent of change.” – Jacob Bronowski, “Law and Individual Responsibility”, Silliman Lectures at Yale University, 1967, In The Origins of Knowledge and Imagination, p. 123.

“Go do something meaningful.” – Philanthropist Eugene M. Grant

Some of the following ideas, particularly the political reforms, could be implemented right away (but won’t).  Many of the ideas require more funding than is currently possible, given the level of government debt.  Therefore, proposals to bring in more revenue must happen first to pay down the debt, and ambitious programs requiring funding must wait until funding is available.  New blog posts on the government debt crisis and taxing unrealized capital gains will be published soon.

Here are one hundred and twelve ideas for radical policy changes needed for American progress.
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Constitutional Reform
The balance of power established under the U.S. Constitution in 1789 has changed, due to the addition of states and population growth.  These changes have led to a permanent situation of disproportionate power given to small states, which exercise disproportionate control over two and one-half of the three branches of government.  See my blog post, “The United States of Minority Rule”, https://debatablypolitical.blogspot.com/2024/08/the-united-states-of-minority-rule.html.

 1.  We should change the rules for representation in the Senate to address the imbalance of power between large and small states.  Two possible fixes are proposed.

A.  Change the representation of States in the US Senate, giving more seats to larger states, and fewer seats to smaller states.  For example, give one seat for every 2.1 million people (the population of New Mexico, the state at the 30th percentile in population), rounded, with one Senator for states with fewer people.  That would leave 18 states with one Senator each, increasing with population to 18 seats for California, for a total of 167 Senators.  We should reapportion Senate seats after each census, as House seats are reapportioned.
B.  Alternatively, redistrict state boundaries, creating 50 states with an average population of 6.7 million people each.  Keep Senate seats at two per state, but redistrict state boundaries every 30 years.  Establish a schedule for reapportionment of states. 

 2.  Require the Senate to vote within 30 days on all Presidential judicial nominations.  If the Senate fails to confirm the first two choices the 3rd choice is appointed without confirmation.

Statehood for All Citizens
The United States should have equal rights for all citizens.  Currently, citizens of Washington D.C. and US Territories lack the rights given to citizens of states.  These proposals address that issue.

3.  Admit Washington DC as a state. 

4.  Administer a referendum in Puerto Rico requiring either a transition to statehood or independence. 

5.  Add Guam, American Samoa, and U.S. Mariana Islands as counties of Hawaii for statewide voting purposes.  If Puerto Rico becomes a state, add the US Virgin Islands as a unit of Puerto Rico.   Otherwise, add the U.S. Virgin Islands to Florida.

Elections
6.  Implement Top-4 open primaries and ranked-choice general elections nationwide.

Recent decades have been marked by increasing political division and toxic partisanship.  Top-4 open primaries and ranked-choice general elections are two powerful methods to assert democracy and counter extremism promoted by our current system.

The Republican party has used closed primaries as a tool to enforce party discipline and punish Republican legislators who oppose certain extreme partisan policies.  High-profile Republicans who were primaried or chose to retire in the face of extreme party opposition include John Boehner, Eric Cantor, Paul Ryan, Kevin McCarthy, Liz Cheney, Fred Upton, Jeff Flake, Bob Corker, Fred Thompson, Peter Meijer and Adam Kinzinger.  Many state legislators have also been primaried for the simple act of cooperating with Democrats on legislation.  Closed primaries allow a small cadre of partisan extremists to control access to the ballot, and enact an extreme political agenda.
Republicans have increasingly employed false-flag and spoiler candidates as a way to deceive low-information voters and unethically win elections.  Ranked-choice voting greatly reduces the effectiveness of these tactics.

Ranked-choice elections are a better expression of democracy, because at the end of the process, the winning candidate must carry the assent of the majority of participating voters.

 7.  Pass a Federal voting reform act.

Establish nationwide standards for voting hours and early voting.
Establish a standard for less than one hour of waiting time at polls.  If polls are in non-attainment of the standard, the Federal government must take control of the local voting process for two years.
Implement nationwide vote-by-mail.  Replace signature verification with a code sent by text to a verified phone # or email.  Leave signature verification as a last-resort option for those who decline phone or email verification.  Establish standardized process for curing ballots.
Standardize universal voter registration.
Standardize voter photo ID, with government responsibility to provide IDs to everyone. 

8.  Standardized re-districting nationwide.

Standardize non-partisan appointment of re-districting authorities.
Implement a standard formula to prevent gerrymandering.

Government and Government Efficiency

9.  Set a maximum age of 72 to serve as President, a member of Congress or the Supreme Court.

10.  Establish a government efficiency commission to review parts of Federal and State governments for current relevance and efficiency.

The commission should provide recommendations to Congress and State legislatures every two years.

11.  Require audit, review and remediation of all government services that cause lines and delays.

Examples include DMV offices, TSA screenings, customs and immigration at border crossings and airports.  Require remediation of all government services which externalize costs by placing the burden of waiting on the people they serve.  Remediation can include both increases in staffing and infrastructure investments.  Audits should be required to ensure compliance.

Supreme Court Reversals and Codifications
12.  Codify Roe v. Wade, guaranteeing the nationwide right to abortion.

13.  Overturn Citizen’s United ruling.  Set limits on PAC donations, total funding and spending, whether for candidates or issues. 

Restore limits on corporate political activity set by McCain-Feingold in 2002.
Break up PACs with existing endowments over a limit, dispersing the assets into non-political vehicles by judicial ruling, if original donors no longer exist. 

14.  Grant authority to Federal Agencies to set regulations, restoring the standard of Chevron v. NRDC.

Tax and Economy
The United States is in a government debt crisis.  The crisis is not rooted in spending, but in over 40 years of deliberate under-taxation intended to restrain the growth of government.  The US has a Federal tax rate that is 50% of the OECD average tax rate (as a percentage of GDP); and a total tax rate that is 75% of the OECD average.  Federal debt in 1980 was about 30% of GDP, today federal debt is 123%.  Total government debt, including intra-governmental and state debt is now about 135% of GDP, a level which economists consider unstable.  That level of debt is competing with private investment and impairing economic growth.

Unrealized capital gains are a major source of economic output which is untaxed, or at least not taxed in timely fashion.  Indeed, up to $10 million in assets are given a step-up in basis at death, so that no tax is ever placed on this share of the economy. 

15.  Tax Unrealized Capital Gains.

A.  Set the tax equal to the progressive tax on ordinary income.
B.  Assess the tax every 5 years from the date an asset is acquired, and re-set the cost basis when the tax is paid.
C.  Exclude illiquid assets, but charge a higher rate on excluded assets.  Assess the tax at the time the asset is sold, at the time of inheritance or transfer to another party.  There should be no exceptions for charitable donations.
D.  Eliminate capital gains tax on primary residences.
E.  At the time the tax on unrealized gains is implemented,  enact a one-time wealth tax (including unrealized gains) of 1% on more than $10 million in assets for married couples, 3% on more than $100 million, and 5% on more than $1 billion.
F.  Eliminate tax-free step-up in cost basis for heirs inheriting appreciated assets.
G.  Reduce the excluded amount on estate tax from $13.61 million per individual ($27.22 million per married couple) to $2.0 million, which was the excluded amount in 2008.  Assess a tax percentage equal to the tax on unrealized capital gains, and more for unrealized capital gains on illiquid assets which have not been previously subjected to tax.
H.  Review and reduce the number of 401c3 charitable organizations qualifying for tax-free donations, eliminating politically-oriented organizations and charities with limited societal benefit.    

16.  Provide corporate tax deductions based on how many good jobs are created, and tax companies that do not provide enough good jobs in proportion to their profits.

Corporations have a responsibility to society to provide employment with good pay.  Society has a fair expectation that businesses provide those jobs, in exchange for the privilege of operating where the government has created a landscape for profitable businesses.  Incentives should be given to those companies which fulfill the responsibility of creating good jobs.
Companies fail to provide good jobs on both ends of the spectrum.  McDonald’s and Walmart create many minimum-wage jobs, but society subsidizes these companies by social programs addressing the poverty of those employees.  On the other hand, Goldman Sachs produces enormous profits with very few employees, and paying those employees exorbitant salaries.  All three companies are failing in their social contract to support the society that supports the company.

A.  Define “good jobs” as jobs paying between 2x minimum wage to 10x minimum wage (while noting that the current minimum wage needs to be raised, proposal #77).  Jobs paying less than 2x minimum wage or more than 10x minimum wage do not qualify for tax benefits.
B.  Each “good job” should provide a corporate income exclusion for tax purposes equal to 20% of the annual wage of the “good job”. 
C.  Corporate taxes should set a standard taxable profit for each good job, based on national statistics.  These profits are subject to standard corporate income tax rates.  Companies earning profits in excess of the standard profit should be assessed additional tax on a progressive scale, up to 50% of corporate income.

17.  Require Congress and the Federal Open Market Committee to coordinate monetary and fiscal economic policy measures. 

Establish a Federal Taxation Agency that specifies how much tax must be raised each year, and Congress is left to decide how to do it.  Currently, the monetary policy folks (the Fed) ignore fiscal policy, and Congress and the President use fiscal policy as a ratchet only in one direction, for stimulus, and never for tightening.  Coordinated policies would be more effective and cause less economic disruption in managing the economy.

18.  Set an automatic trigger for tax increases to reduce government debt.

If US government debt, including intra-government debt and state government debts, exceeds 120% of GDP on a 5-year rolling average, income tax schedules are increased by 5% per year until the debt/GDP ratio is under 120%.   Higher rates must prevail until debt/GDP is under 100%.

19.  Study and identify cost drivers for disproportionate increases in costs for health care, medicine and education.

                Require implementation of combined market & government actions to reduce costs.

20.  Tax churches as ordinary businesses for income and property.

21.  Remove the salary ceiling on payment of FICA and Medicare taxes. 

22.  Tax investment income equally or more than wage income for FICA and Medicare. 

Climate Change
23.  Place a carbon tax on fuels, proportional to relative CO2 emissions, increasing the tax until emissions goals are met.

The United States has released a disproportionate share of greenhouse gases in the past, bringing the the world to the brink of a climate crisis.  Therefore, the United States should take responsibility for its past actions and take a leading role in reducing carbon emissions ahead of the rest of the world. 
The fuel tax could be imposed at the production site, the transport system, or at the end user.  I don’t care.
Tax goods which produce significant carbon emissions in manufacturing, apart from fuel usage.
Implement trade agreements with other countries requiring an identical carbon tax, or impose tariffs equivalent to the carbon intensity of each imported product.
Provide tradable tax credits for CO2 sequestration that achieves permanent sequestration.  Disallow credits for CO2 industrial use that does not achieve permanent sequestration.

Education
24.  Provide government-paid tuition for college and vocational training for up to four years.

Community colleges, state universities, and technical and trade schools should be eligible for government-paid tuition.  A stipend for living expenses should also be provided.

Social Welfare
25.  Provide federal government-paid breakfast and lunch to all school children.

Implement meal delivery for needy students during summer and school holidays.

26.  Establish guaranteed basic minimum income for all citizens. 

Similar to the Alaska PFD, the universal basic income should be funded by a sovereign wealth fund, and distribute dividends on an as-needed basis.  An additional stipend should be given for the first two children.  See proposal #77 on minimum wage.

27.   Repeal Daylight Savings Time

Time changes to and from Daylight Savings Time are known to cause higher accident rates, a variety of health risks, lost productivity, fatigue and sleep disruption.  Sleep experts recommend year-round standard time for better health.  

Repeal Daylight Savings Time, and institute year-round Standard Time

28.   Implement a program of reparations for descendants of enslaved people and Native Americans, proportionally determined by DNA analysis.

29. Establish a national commission on homelessness.

Focus on subdividing the problem, separately identifying people down on their luck, those suffering from addiction, those suffering from mental illness, those who are simply independent spirits, those who are predatory on others, etc.  Propose subdivided solutions for different parts of the problem.

Social Security
30.  Replace the current Social Security system with a national pension based solely on age and health. 

We should provide for the well-being of the elderly, not because of their earlier contributions to the economy, but because we honor and respect old people.  Social Security awards benefits depending on work history, and fails to cover those who did not have conventional, paid employment.  There are many citizens who are unable to work, or have no work history because of a lifetime of caregiving to others.  Also, various government employees are ineligible for Social Security, and receive inadequate or no pension benefits.  These citizens deserve support in their elderly years, too.

31.  Tax wealthy elderly citizens to fund pensions for poorer seniors.

Elderly Americans hold a disproportionate amount of the nation’s wealth.  Americans over the age of 55 hold ten times the wealth of Americans under the age of 40.  However, there is a bi-modal distribution of wealth among the elderly.  Half of retired Americans are very wealthy, but the other half are impoverished.   Currently, payroll taxes on young workers trying to raise families, to fund Social Security.  Instead, we should increase taxes on very wealthy elderly citizens as a function of age, with an additional 5% of tax on income beginning at age 70, increasing by 5% every five years, and use the proceeds to fun either Social Security or a national pension. 

Health Care
32.  Take the responsibility of providing health insurance away from employers, and make it a government function covering everyone.

33.  Implement an optional single-payer insurance system.  Have a nationwide, minimum-care insurance system as an entitlement for all citizens and legal residents.

34.  Establish a nationwide system of government-run local clinics, delivering most care through nurse-practitioners, with a doctor on-site for more severe problems.

35.  Double the number of accredited medical student positions, and allocate a higher percentage of those to American citizens.

                Ensure that there is at least one medical school in every state.

36.  Fund research into broad-spectrum cold vaccines and one-time flu vaccines.

37.  Reassess nutritional guidelines for baby formula, including maximum recommended daily intake.  Establish standards for infant weight gain, and require counseling of new parents by pediatricians on infant feeding to abate the obesity epidemic.

38.  Run government-funded clinical studies on health benefits of non-pharmacological foods (e.g., blueberries, menthol) and health-food supplements.

Transportation
39.  Redesign the 30 largest American cities.

Establish a car-free city center with parking at the perimeter, and alternative transportation within the city center.  Connect all downtown buildings with indoor concourses, with shopping and airport-style people-moving technologies.  Build express trains to suburban centers, build light-rail for near-center residents, improve local bus service in midtown and suburbs.  Build transfer stations and parking at the edge of the city center and near major suburban hubs.

40.  Implement a significant tax on heavy vehicles.

Heavy personal-use vehicles have a large impact on traffic-accident fatalities.  The baseline probability of being killed in a vehicle collision increases by 47% for a 1000-pound increase in the weight of the other vehicle.  The increase is 61% if the other vehicle is an SUV, pickup, or minivan.  Large vehicles also cause a disproportionate number of fatalities in accidents involving pedestrians and bicyclists.  Further, heavy vehicles contribute unnecessarily to carbon emissions and reduce American energy independence.  We should implement a 50% tax on vehicles weighing more than 4500 pounds, with a ramp to zero tax for vehicles less than 3500 pounds.  Exempt business vehicles making deliveries for more than 150 days per year, and farm vehicles on farms with more than $100,000 in annual agricultural sales.  Electric vehicles are necessarily heavier due to batteries, but are also necessary for climate action.  Add a battery allowance of 500 pounds for fully electric vehicles to the tax thresholds.

41.  Regulate bumper height and shape to reduce pedestrian and bicycle fatalities from large vehicles.

High bumpers on large vehicles cause 45% more fatalities in collisions with pedestrians and bicyclists.
Ban right turns on red to save pedestrian lives.

42.  Install smart traffic lights at every controlled intersection in America.

Lights should detect pedestrians, and waiting and oncoming traffic.  Lights should optimize transit through the intersection with minimum overall waiting time.

43.  Research automatic vehicle braking at red lights.

Develop automatic driving AI that will prevent running red lights.  Include equipment for a deliberate override of the system for emergency situations.  Mandate inclusion on all vehicles when technology is available.

44.  Elderly Driver Competency Testing

Test elderly drivers for sight, hearing, reaction time, attention and memory to maintain drivers’ licenses.  Testing should be done at age 70, 74, 78, 80, and annually thereafter. 

45.  Significantly increase air travel taxes to reduce demand and fund development of infrastructure in alternative transportation. 

Air traffic has exceeded maximum volume for reliable travel.  The system is fragile due to overloading of airports, designated airways, personnel, and air traffic control.  The system is subject to cascading shutdowns due to weather, technological failures or terrorism.  Alternative methods of high-speed transportation between cities must be developed (i.e., high-speed rail and or vacuum-tube trains).  Revenues from an air traffic tax can be used to research and build alternative infrastructure.

46.  Build high-speed rail or vacuum tube trains between major cities. 

Plan to reduce air traffic by 50% or more with improved high-speed rail. 

47.  Work with trucking companies and technology companies to develop long-distance roads pre-adapted to autonomous electric vehicles. 

48.  Require tug escorts for freight passage through critical infrastructure, water hazards and sensitive environments.

49.  Ban re-treaded tires.

Failed re-treaded tires litter major highways with dangerous debris, litter, and distribute environmentally damaging micro-plastics.  The externalized cost of these tires exceeds the benefit to society. 

50.  Require oil companies to disclose the country of origin for gasoline sold, on annual reports and at the pump.

Disclosure at the pump should show the source for gasoline sold by that company for the previous year.

Housing
51.  Require all new housing developments to include at least 25% multi-family housing options, and a spectrum of housing costs.

Eliminate zoning and HOA restrictions against multi-family housing in existing developments.

Consumer Protection
52.  Limit interest rates on all issued loans to no more than eight percent over the rate of inflation.

If risk to the lender is such that eight percent interest is insufficient, the borrower should not be borrowing the money.  Further, the risk of correlated defaults is dangerous to the entire economy, as we learned in 2009. 

53.  Establish a commission to investigate and intervene in industries with non-competitive fee schedules.

Examples of non-competitive fees include real estate brokerages, with a 6% standard fee for selling a home, or mutual funds and financial advisors charging 1% of assets annually.
Indications of non-competitive fees would include identical pricing across a majority of vendors, and unvarying fees over long periods of time and differing market conditions.

 54.  Make flood insurance available to every American homeowner.       

Standard homeowners insurance excludes coverage for floods.   Flooding is becoming more prevalent due to climate change, leaving homeowners vulnerable to catastrophic losses.  Insurance companies have peeled away the most profitable parts of home insurance, leaving taxpayers and homeowners on the hook for the most damaging events.
Require insurance companies to either include flood insurance with standard homeowners policies, or to contribute to a Federal flood insurance fund.
Tax new and existing buildings in 500-year flood zones to help fund federal flood programs.
If funding is insufficient, additional funding can be allocated from a carbon tax.
Provide $1 million in free federal flood insurance to residents living outside of 500-year flood zones.
Provide federal flood insurance at actuarial cost for homeowners in 500-year flood zones, partly subsidized by homeowners’ insurance companies.

55.  Ban rebuilding after disasters in zones with high probability of recurring climate-driven destruction, including flood plains and certain barrier islands.

Justice
56.  Require timely prosecution of cases, taking away the discretion of judges, prosecutors and defense attorneys to indefinitely delay trials. 

Standards for timely trials should also include limits on delays for hearings and stages of the trial.  No more than one year should pass from the date charges are filed until a case is heard.  Also set limits on trial length, depending on the severity of the charges.  Set standards for civil cases as well.  Increase numbers of judges, staffing for investigations and court resources until the standards are met without impairing quality of the proceedings.  Jurisdictions failing to meet standards should be placed under federal oversight and operation of courts until standards are met.

57.  Establish 20-year term limits for Supreme Court.

Expand the Supreme Court to match number of circuit courts (currently 15), with additional expansion in the event that new circuit courts are added.  Among competing proposals, the bill proposed by Senator Wyden allows for a gradual expansion of the court over 3 presidential terms to minimize partisan impact.

58.  Form a national clemency court with authority over both federal and state cases, and remove the power of Presidential pardons. 

The power of Presidential pardons has been abused by presidents of both parties to unjustly absolve supporters convicted of crimes.  That power encourages partisan crimes, and should be removed from the office of the president.
Establish a special clemency court to investigate unjust verdicts, giving a panel of judges the authority to investigate cases and grant pardons.  Alternatively, allow the clemency court to bring recommendations to the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, with the power of pardons to be vested in the Chief Justice.

59.  Standardize sentencing nationwide. 

Establish national guidelines for sentencing depending on the severity of the crime, decreasing the amount of judicial discretion in sentencing.  Implement these standards in state law across all 50 states. 

60.  Institute a national program to investigate abusive policing. 

Require the use of body cameras and audit their usage in all major police departments.  Establish a standard for release of all camera data to the public within three days of an event.  Camera data should be retained for at least one year, and made available for release by public request.

61.  End civil forfeiture of assets for minor crimes. 

Funds from confiscated vehicles and cash confiscation must go to civic charities rather than local government or police departments, to remove the motivation for policing for profit.

62.  Assign punitive penalties in civil judgments to the State.

The concept of punitive penalties is to modify the behavior of the offending entity, so there is no reason why those penalties should belong to plaintiffs or lawyers.  Punitive penalties awarded in civil cases should not accrue to defendants or lawyers, but should be given entirely to the state.  The purpose of this policy is to reduce litigation as a kind of slot machine, motivated by the possibility of large payouts for lawyers and defendants. 

63.  Restrict Lawyers’ Contingent Fees

Restrict lawyers’ contingent fees to no more than 20% of damages awarded in a civil suit.  Damages awarded by through the legal system should go to the victims, not their lawyers.

64.  Investigate and ban policing for profit by local jurisdictions through traffic fines or other fees.

65.  Require notification of all government surveillance of electronic communications, except according to a permit from the FISA court.

66.  Establish congressional oversight over FISA Court, with required reporting to Congressional committees. 

Establish a congressional audit of FISA court activities to ensure compliance with legal restrictions and privacy protection of U.S. citizens.

Immigration
67.  Provide amnesty and legal residency for all “illegal” immigrants who have lived in the United States without legal issues (including non-payment of debts or domestic violence) for five years or more. 

Legal residency includes the right to live and work, but does not include a path to citizenship or federal voting. 

68.  Provide a path to citizenship for all immigrants who have served in the U.S. Military. 

69.  Provide legal residency and a path to citizenship for all “Dreamers”. 

70.  Provide permanent legal residency and a path to citizenship for all TPS (Temporary Protected Status) residents who have been in the United States for more than five years.

71.  Offer permanent residency and a path to citizenship for any foreign student graduating from an accredited U.S. college or university with a bachelor’s or higher degree.

72.  Create a guest worker program for foreign workers needed by U.S. farms and industry. 

A cumulative five years of work service should enable a path for permanent residency and citizenship.  It’s noteworthy that presidents Reagan, G.H.W. Bush and G.W. Bush all advocated a guest worker program for immigrant labor.

73.   Double legal immigration quotas. 

Also, eliminate preferred immigration status for distant family members, e.g. cousin and uncle/aunt/nephew/niece or more distant relationships.  Prioritized family immigration status should only apply to siblings and children under the age of 25, and parents.

74.  Reform Customs & Border Patrol agency. 

Completely remove existing leadership and replace with compassionate leaders.  Reframe the CPS mission to protect potential immigrants, rather than deterring immigration.  Hold training sessions for rank & file, and remove any officers who resist the change in mission.

Scientific Research and Development
75.  Set a minimum budget for non-defense general science research and development to 1.5% of GDP.

Non-defense, non-space science spending has shrunk from over 2% of GDP in the 1960s to 0.3% today, dropping below 1.5% in 1974 and below 1.0% in 1980.

76.  Set minimum budget for non-defense space spending to 0.5% of GDP. 

Non-defense space spending peaked at over 4% of GDP during the Apollo program, but today is less than 0.1% of GDP.  Unmanned, robotic missions should receive at least one-third of the space budget.

77.  Boost defense R&D spending to at least 1.0% of GDP. 

Defense scientific R&D was 2.5% of GDP in the mid-1970s.  It declined to under 1.0% by 1994, and today is 0.4% of GDP.  As today’s world becomes more unstable, military technical superiority is more important than ever, to intimidate potential enemies rather than fight a war.

78.  Research biodegradable plastics, with the goal of requiring adoption by manufacturers within fifteen years. 

79.  Investigate vehicle predation on insect, bird and mammal populations, and develop recommendations to reduce fauna mortality.

80.  Develop concepts for near-lightspeed interstellar microprobes. 

Concepts might include linear or circular magnetic accelerators in space, and systems such as “trains” of signal receiver/transmitters to return data to earth. 

Guns
81.  Ban personal ownership or possession of military-grade weapons, including assault rifles. 

Set maximum standards for magazine capacity, rate of fire, bullet mass and shape and muzzle velocity.

Immediately ban the sale of assault weapons and ammunition, and allow a fifteen-year transition period before a complete ban.

82.  Ban handguns or make ownership requirements more stringent. 

If handguns are legal, require at least one year of weekly training to be licensed for personal ownership or possession of handguns.  Training must be at least 60% focused on classroom work regarding gun violence, 30% on safe handling, and 10% on target practice.  Prospective licensees must view at least five emergency surgeries for gunshot violence in a trauma hospital to be granted a license.

83.  Implement national red-flag laws prohibiting ownership of guns for those identified for domestic abuse or mental illness. 

Establish national database of red-flag individuals.  Implement and audit gun store compliance.  Ban sales of guns at gun shows and third-party sales, except through government-authorized gun exchange websites.  Audit compliance with gun regulations.

Business Regulation and Labor
84.  Raise the minimum wage to the level needed for an adult working couple to raise a family of four with dignity. 

It is a fundamental human right to be able to raise a family.  Every couple working full-time jobs should be able to afford to raise a family, with income sufficient to cover child care, food, housing, transportation, household expenses, entertainment and vacation.  Raise the minimum wage for people over the age of 25 to the level needed to raise a family, in combination with a universal basic income and child income stipend (see proposal #26).

85.  Make it illegal to limit workers’ hours or duration of employment to avoid paying benefits. 

86.  Limit high-end executive compensation to no more than 40x the minimum company employee salary, and no more than 10x the average employee compensation for the company.

87.  Ban executive compensation in stock options. 

Stock options are of unclear value, and would circumvent executive compensation limits.  Stock grants are permissible, if granted on a specific date and valued at market price when granted.  Stock grants are included in executive compensation caps. 

88.  Reform Patent Law to Encourage Early Integration of New Technologies

The patent system is intended to incentivize innovation and ensure that innovators receive a reward for developing new products.  In practice, and in the 21st century, the U.S. patent system is stifling innovation, impeding the integration of technology, and delaying the delivery of new products to the market.  The complexity and number of patents has increased greatly, changing how innovations are commercialized.  Patent wars and patent trolls clog the legal system and misdirect the attention of corporations away from constructive work.

Require patent holders to license the patented technology to any applicant at a mutually agreed price.  If a price for licensing cannot be agreed, the case is automatically referred to a court-approved arbitrator for binding arbitration.  The arbitration process must be resolved in four month: two months to prepare for the case, one month for hearings, and one month for the arbitrator to render a decision.  A fifteen percent tax should be placed on licensing payments as an incentive to resolve licensing without arbitration

89.  Job Creation Incentives

Enact a tax on employee layoffs for technological replacement.  Tax proceeds should be directed to training and placement programs for workers.

90.  Break up large unions into at least three competing unions in every major industry.

Government is necessary to correct failures of the free market; unions are necessary to correct failures by government to adequately defend the well-being of workers.  If government is doing its job, unions should be unnecessary. 

Union tactics are extortion, by nature, applied to companies and society to achieve union demands.  There is no systematic check on the power of unions.  Breaking unions into competing entities would provide a check on the power of unions. 

Any union should be allowed to hold only 50% of labor market share in a market, or be broken up.

Information
91.  Provide federal funding of libraries, including public computer and Internet resources. 

Set minimum operating hours in all libraries, including at least eight hours of operation on Saturdays and Sundays.  Libraries must qualify as public institutions with adequate resources to qualify for federal funding.

92.  Subsidize broadband access in remote areas of the country.

93.  Provide subsidized WiFi, cellular data or StarLink for low-income citizens.

94.  Regulate social media companies as public utilities.

Regulations should include public disclosure of algorithms, and require audited standards for free speech while providing reasonable defenses against the proliferation of misinformation. 

95.  Establish a non-profit social media company with a government subsidy.

96.  Require interoperability of social media.

Financial Industry and Non-Profit Regulation
It has been said that excessive credit is behind every financial crisis.  Put another way, every financial crisis is caused by default on borrowed money.  Placing guardrails on lending for the protection of consumers and the economy is in the clear public interest.

97.  Increase minimum margin requirements from 50% to 75% for initial stock purchases, and from 25% to 60% for maintenance margin holdings.

98.  Limit the use of leverage by hedge funds.

99.  Require mutual funds to create a tool for shareholders to provide broad direction on voting those shares, and to vote shares accordingly.

100.  Require permission and compensation to borrow stocks for short-selling.  The default in brokerage agreements should be no permission.

101.  Require non-profit institutions to disclose a line item of total financial fees paid in annual reports.

102.  Require non-profit funds and endowments to pay out at least 4% of total assets annually, on a 5-year rolling average.

Oceans and Environment
103.  Establish a schedule to eliminate commercial fishing of wild stocks within 25 years. 

Commercial fishing has eventually destroyed every fishery.
Ban bottom-trawl fishing now.
Establish incentives and regulations to replace commercial fishing of wild stocks with environmentally safe fish farming to provide needed ocean seafood.

104.  Require all single-use plastics to be fully biodegradable by 2035.

105.  Establish marine sanctuaries covering at least 30% of the US Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) 

106.  Establish at least three north-south oriented nature preserves extending from Canada to Mexico or the Gulf Coast as continuous migration pathways, thirty miles in width, and with animal crossways above or below all roads.

107.  Double the size and number of National Parks in the lower 48 to better serve the U.S. population, which has doubled since 1956.

BLM lands can be converted to National Parks, including areas such at the area south of Moab Utah, containing natural Arches equal to those in Arches National Park.
Increase the park service budget to improve current park service and maintenance, and increase the budget proportionally to care for the additional parks.

Foreign Relations
108.  Eliminate aid to Israel until Palestinians are given land and reparations, including all of the West Bank, and a Palestinian state is established. 

109  Recognize Taiwan as an independent country and declare that we will defend its independence from China.

110.  Admit Ukraine to NATO and defend its 1991 borders. 

111.  Use diplomatic leverage to encourage the Maduro regime to respect the results of the last election. Reimpose all sanctions and encourage other countries to observe similar sanctions until the election-winning opposition government is in place.

112.  Offer easing of trade restrictions and economic development support to Cuba in exchange for democratic reforms.

Wednesday, August 28, 2024

The United States of Minority Rule

Abstract (TL:DR Version)
The Constitution of the United States established a remarkably stable democratic republic.  The nation has persisted under that constitution for 235 years, despite a civil war, world wars, wars of territorial acquisition, corrupt presidents, and most recently, an attempt by a sitting president to violently overturn the lawful result of an election.   The former president was supported by 147 Congressmen, 6 Senators, a number of state officials and a significant percentage of the population in committing that crime.  But nevertheless, the United States persists under the Constitution.

The government designed by the Constitution is an amalgam of democratic and republican government principles.  The government is a representational republic built from constituent states; but elections in those states are required to be democratic.  The dynamic balance between those influences has generally allowed the nation to change according to popular opinion, while protecting the rights of geographic minority interests (with the notable exception of the civil war and slavery).  Our two major political parties, by their very names, prioritize different sides of the democratic and republican components of our government.  

The Constitution allocated disproportionate power to small states from the very beginning.  In the 1790 census, Virginia, the largest state, had a total population that was nearly 13 times larger than Delaware, the smallest state.  (Throughout this post, I will refer to large states and small states in terms of population, not area.)  At the time, only white males over the age of 21 living in member states had the right to vote for national offices.  Women, enslaved people, children and citizens of U.S. Territories did not vote and were not represented in government.  In terms of free white men, Virginia had about ten times the population of Delaware.  

Over time, the demographic development of the nation produced a greater imbalance in the power of voters in small and large states.  The population disparity between large and small states has grown.  Voters in small states now have a massively disproportionate power over the federal government, relative to voters in large states.  Today, a voter in Wyoming has 68 times the power of a California voter, and nearly 4 times the power of a California voter in the Electoral College.  According to today’s distribution of voters, a partisan population of about 28% of all voters can elect the president, and a partisan population of about 17% can control the U.S. Senate.  Together, partisan control of the Senate and the Presidency also gives small states control of the Federal courts, including both lower courts and the Supreme Court.  The power imbalance under the constitution potentially gives a distinct minority of the population control over two and one-half of the three branches of the Federal government.  

The structural foundation of that power imbalance means that we have entered an era of permanent minority rule.  Small states will not be willing to accept the changes that will undermine their disproportionate political power, and will block attempts to equalize power.  I see persistent minority rule as perhaps the biggest threat to American constitutional government.  There will come a point when minority rule is intolerable to the majority of Americans, but cannot be changed through constitutional processes.  I don’t know how that will be resolved.
End of abstract.
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The Structure of Disproportionate Political Power
Disproportionate political power is structurally embedded in the constitution.  Disproportionate power has existed since the country’s founding, but has been growing as the country grew from 13 to 50 states and from 4 million to 338 million people.  

Disproportionate power lies principally in the Senate, but also exists in the Electoral College and in the House of Representatives.  Each state, regardless of population, has two Senators.  Seats in the House of Representatives are re-apportioned once a decade according to population, with a minimum of 1 seat per state.  Votes in the electoral college are based on the sum of Senate and House seats by state, so that Wyoming, with a population of 584,000 (7/1/2023), has 3 votes in the electoral college, while California with a population of 38,9645,000 (7/1/2023) has 54 votes in the electoral college.  Considering the voting population, a voter in Wyoming has 68 times the political power of a voter in California in the U.S. Senate.   A Wyoming voter also has 3.8 times the power of a California voter in the Electoral College, and 1.3 times the power of a California voter in the House of Representatives.

Political Power of Small States in 1790
Disproportionate power existed at the time the Constitution was written.  The 1790 census gives us a good picture of the nation at the time of the ratification of the Constitution.  To consider political power, I’m looking at the constitutional representation and populations of the original 13 states.   Voting rights in 1790 were set by the states, but the general standard was that only free males over the age of 21 had the right to vote.  An 81% majority of the population, including women, children, enslaved people and residents of US territories, held no political power.  Over time, voting rights were earned by citizen of territories which became states, formerly enslaved people, and women.

Consider what portion of the population was needed to control the U.S. Senate if all small states vote for the same party.  In 1790, the six smallest states, plus one senator from the next largest state, could control the U.S. Senate.  The voting population of the 6 ½ small states was 185,800, or 24.9% of the voting population.  Only 51% of the voters were needed to elect a senator.  So, in theory, 94,800 voters, representing 11.6 % of the voting population, or 2.4% of the total population, could control the U.S. Senate.  

To elect a president in 1790 required a larger percentage of the population.  There were 91 votes in the electoral college.  To achieve a winning majority with small states, 9 states out of 13 were necessary, with a voting population of 339,200, or 45.5% of the voting population.  If 51% of the voters in the smallest states voted together, in theory 23.2% of the voters (4.4% of the total population) could choose the president.

The Urban-Rural Divide
The urban-rural divide is one of the most important socio-political divisions in American politics, on a par with religion, race, age or education (which are correlated variables).  Recent articles note that the urban-rural divide began to develop around 1960.  The divide primary applies to white voters and continues to grow.  For this discussion, the most important fact is that the urban-rural divide exists.  States with small populations are generally rural; states with large populations are boosted by high-density urban populations.  Thus, the disproportionate political power established by the U.S. Constitution becomes a structural partisan advantage.  

The urban-rural divide is a global phenomenon, identified in countries spanning Europe and Asia, and probably existing in South America and Africa as well.  In Europe, urban-rural polarization has coincided with the rise of far-right populism and the decline of centrist parties.  

In the United States, the urban-rural divide persists even within small, rural states.  Cities and towns remain partisan Democratic outliers within predominantly Republican states.  Overall, rural counties are aging and shrinking as a percentage of the US population.  Forecasters have suggested that increasing urbanization might reduce the partisan lean of small states, but that depends on uncertain future demographic trends.

Disproportionate Power of Red States Today
To see the actual impact of the disproportionate power given to small states, we need to look at the actual voting population and partisan populations.  Only forty votes are needed to control the filibuster, under the rules of the U.S. Senate.  Fifty-one votes are needed to win a vote in the Senate, and 270 votes are needed in the electoral college to elect the president.  The following table shows the voting population of red states, in rank order by population, needed to achieve control of the filibuster, control of the Senate, and elect the president.  

Given our current distribution of population and partisan lean, a voting population of only 17.1 percent of total voters, and a partisan population of only 10.5% of total voters, can shut down any legislative proposal by controlling the filibuster.  A voting population of only 30% of all voters, and a partisan cohort of only 17.8% of all voters can control the majority in the U.S. Senate.  And a partisan population of only 28.1% of the total voting population can (and sometimes does) elect the president with a minority of the popular vote.

In 2000, George W. Bush won the presidency with 47.9% of the popular vote, and in 2016, Donald Trump won the presidency with 46% of the popular vote.  Not surprisingly, both of these men were Republicans, and were elected largely on the strength of conservative voters in small states.  Disproportionate electoral power can also amplify the impact of spoiler candidates, who have influenced the winning candidate for both Democrats and Republicans in the past several decades.  

According to The Daily Kos, Democrats have won the popular vote for Senate elections in 14 of the past 15 cycles (aggregating the vote over the three cycles to replace the full Senate), but Republicans have controlled the Senate in 9 out of those 15 cycles.  That disparity in representation has increased in recent years.  Today, Republicans hold 49 seats, but these seats represent only 42% of the national population.  

Federal Judiciary
The combination of disproportionate power in the Senate and Presidency has an insidious impact on governmental power under the constitution.  The U.S. Senate is required to confirm presidential nominations for Article III judges: Federal District Judges, Federal Court of Appeals Judges, and Supreme Court Justices, and for a few specialty courts.  In all, there are 890 of these positions.  There is natural turnover in these positions, and occasional elevations that require additional confirmations.

Federal judges hold the ultimate power under the U.S. Constitution.  In 1803, Chief Justice John Marshall asserted in Marbury vs. Madison that the Supreme Court had the authority to interpret laws passed by Congress.  There is no check on this power other than impeachment by Congress, and in a practical matter, a Senate controlled by small states would not convict judges simply for interpreting laws in a way favored by those states.  The Supreme Court can rule that black is white, or that a President has immunity from any criminal proceeding (e.g., Trump vs. The United States, 2024), and there is no recourse to that decision under the constitution, so long as the Justices’ behavior does not warrant impeachment.

The exercise of disproportionate power by small states was seen clearly in the years 2015 and 2016, when Republicans took control of the Senate during President Obama’s last two year in office.  The rate of judicial nomination approvals dropped from 90% to 28%.  Republicans refused to hold a vote on 215 nominations and left 105 judicial seats vacant for President Trump to fill after he took office.  These included one seat on the Supreme Court.  Given that Federal judgeships are lifetime appointments, this partisan abuse of power can shape the nation’s government for a generation.  There is no recourse under the Constitution to assert the will of the majority.  

Conclusion
Small states are given disproportionate power in the U.S. government by the Constitution.  That disproportionate power was a feature of the U.S. government from the beginning, but has grown more dominant in recent years due to differential population growth in large and small states and the increasing urban-rural partisan divide.  

Partisan lean does not determine everything about an election, or control of the Presidency or Senate.  There are swing states that can vote either way, and there are a number of Senators (e.g. Jon Tester, Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin) who upend simple models of Senate control.  But in our increasingly rancorous and partisan political landscape, those Senators are less likely to retain their seats, and Presidents are more likely to be elected from the party dominating politics in small rural states.

The combined disproportionate power of small states in the Electoral College and Senate gives small states disproportionate influence over the Federal Judiciary at every level, including the Supreme Court.  As long as the country abides by Constitutional rule, the Supreme Court is the ultimate law of the land.  Depending on the integrity of the Justices on the Court, the court can essentially decide every potential partisan conflict regarding rules or policies in favor of their minority supporters.

A minority population in small states can control two and one-half of the three branches of government against the will of the majority.  The political divide between urban and rural populations ensures that small rural states will typically vote as a partisan block.  I see no way of countering these trends without Constitutional amendments, but these would be impossible to pass without the cooperation of states that would lose power.  Three-quarters of the states must ratify a Constitutional amendment, therefore reform will not happen.

At some point, the political decisions driven by the minority in small states will become intolerable to the majority.  We are close to that point now.  In this election, Republicans are running a candidate who is the most odious person imaginable.  Even at that, the result in November is unclear.  Through abuse of power in the Senate, Republicans have already grasped a generation-long majority in the Federal judiciary and Supreme Court.  Republicans will probably dominate the Senate for the foreseeable future.  There’s no reason to think that these trends will change.

In summary, I think that the minority rule by small states, established by the constitution, is the most dangerous threat to the long-term existence of the nation under the constitution.  When minority control of the government and courts is sufficiently intolerable, the majority will eventually seek a restructuring of the government outside of the constitution.  

References
https://wcl.american.libguides.com/voting/history/timeline

Urban-Rural Divide
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban%E2%80%93rural_political_divide
https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2018/05/22/demographic-and-economic-trends-in-urban-suburban-and-rural-communities/
https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2018/05/22/urban-suburban-and-rural-residents-views-on-key-social-and-political-issues/
https://government.cornell.edu/news/exploring-widening-chasm-between-urban-and-rural-voters
https://as.cornell.edu/news/growing-rural-urban-divide-exists-only-among-white-americans
https://stanfordmag.org/contents/the-urban-rural-divide
https://usafacts.org/reports/2021/government-10-k/part-i/item-1-purpose-and-function-of-our-government-general/government-structure/

Control of the Senate and Popular Vote
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/15/2148835/-Republicans-have-won-the-Senate-half-the-time-since-2000-despite-winning-fewer-votes-than-Democrats
https://ballotpedia.org/Proportion_of_each_party%27s_national_U.S._House_vote_and_share_of_seats_won_in_U.S._House_of_Representatives_elections
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/12/08/in-2022-midterms-nearly-all-senate-election-results-again-matched-states-presidential-votes/

Presidents elected by Minority and Plurality Vote
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_United_States_presidential_election

Control of the House and the Popular Vote
https://ballotpedia.org/Proportion_of_each_party%27s_national_U.S._House_vote_and_share_of_seats_won_in_U.S._House_of_Representatives_elections

Federal Judgeships
https://www.uscourts.gov/judges-judgeships/about-federal-judges
https://www.uscourts.gov/judges-judgeships/about-federal-judges
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_judge
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_federal_judges_appointed_by_Donald_Trump
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_federal_judges_appointed_by_Joe_Biden
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/oct/02/donald-trump/fact-check-why-barack-obama-failed-fill-over-100-j/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_federal_judges_appointed_by_Barack_Obama#United_States_Court_of_Federal_Claims