Significance of the 2012 Presidential Election

The significance of the re-election of Barack Obama  in 2012 is primarily that Mitt Romney (or any other Republican) was NOT elected president.  The election of Obama marks the continuation of the status quo, rather than a hard turn to the political right.  But the opportunities and challenges of the next four years will be different than the previous four years, and the ideology of the man in the oval office will have profound and lasting impact upon the country.

The Supreme Court

Four Supreme Court Justices are over the age of 74.  It seems likely that some of these judges will retire or pass away during the next presidential term. 

Supreme Court Justices                 Age                        Philosophy

Ruth Ginsburg                                   79                           Liberal

Antonin Scalia                                   76                           Conservative

Anthony Kennedy                             76                           Conservative

Stephen Bryer                                   74                           Liberal

Clarence Thomas                              64                           Conservative

Samuel Alito                                      62                           Conservative

Sonia Sotomayor                               58                           Liberal

John Roberts                                     57                           Conservative

Elena Kagan                                      52                           Liberal

The Court is currently relatively balanced.   The following graphic shows the voting record of Justices on cases heard in 2011.   Four justices nominated by Democratic presidents form a liberal  voting bloc, particularly on important and contentious cases.  The five justices nominated by Republican presidents form a conservative voting bloc, but with Anthony Kennedy occasionally voting with the liberals.

Modified from data presented here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_term_opinions_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States
Green and blue indicate judges voting with the court majority.  Red and purple indicate dissent.  Bold colors indicate written judicial opinions to be used as precedent by lower courts.

Future court cases are likely to involve abortion rights, health care and elder care, immigration, harassment of minorities, Influence by financial donors over legislators, environmental regulation, death penalty cases, police conduct, copyright law, and partisan actions of local governments.

Judges nominated by Obama will determine the philosophical leaning of the court for years, probably decades.   Given that judges can choose to retire when a president of their party is in power, control of these seats may persist even beyond the tenure of the new judges.  Obama’s power to nominate new judges will likely diminish corporate and big-money influence in politics; his nominees will be favorable with regard to women’s rights, minority and immigrants’ rights, public schools, environmental regulation and religious pluralism in America.

Foreign Policy

Obama has already demonstrated his direction in foreign policy.   Under Obama, foreign disputes are more likely to be handled through negotiation than confrontation.  Obama is willing to conduct covert operations in response to terrorist threats, but has been restrained in the use of military force.   By contrast, Romney would return to the aggressive polices of the G.W. Bush administration, confrontation with China, Russia, and the Islamic world, and unquestioned military support of Israel.    I believe the world will be a more peaceful place with Obama as president instead of Mitt Romney.

http://debatablypolitical.blogspot.com/2012/10/the-arms-race-against-world.html

Energy Policy and Climate Change

Republicans do not believe in man-made climate change.  Mitt Romney plainly declared “I like coal”.   By contrast, Democrats and Barack Obama believe that climate change is one of the most important issues facing mankind.   Under Obama, policies and taxes will be structured to favor renewable energy, and restrict the use of fossil fuels, particularly coal.

Immigration Reform and Minority Rights

The contrast between Obama and Romney is particularly striking in terms of immigration and minority issues.  Under Republicans, local governments would be given free rein to harass Hispanics and minorities in a variety of ways.  It is racism in the guise of law enforcement.  Under Obama, minority rights will be upheld.   Obama will also seek a resolution to the problem of ten million illegal immigrants living in the America.  Republicans have offered no ideas, no shred of a solution to the problem except to build a fence along our border with Mexico.   

Health Care

President Obama’s signature piece of legislation was the health care reform act extending health care insurance to thirty million Americans who had none.  With Obama’s re-election, Republicans will be unable to repeal the legislation before it is implemented and becomes part of how we live as Americans.

Taxation

Under Obama, the tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans enacted under president Bush will be allowed to expire.   Tax rates for the wealthiest Americans are likely to rise, restoring these rates to levels considered reasonable in previous decades.