The United States has become more politically polarized over the past 40 years. Growing polarization threatens the ability of our representatives to compromise without alienating their political base, and it threatens their ability govern effectively.
The Capitol invasion of January 6th may push Republican political divisions to the breaking point. Similarly, divisions among Democrats will make Biden’s work more difficult, even with Democrats controlling the Presidency, with narrow majorities in the House & Senate (but not the Supreme Court). I believe that our two-party system is on the cusp of a once-in-a-century re-organization, with traditional constituencies changing sides, and a third or fourth major party developing.
The two major parties are coalitions of a number of different constituencies, with differing socio-economic, racial, gender and geographic backgrounds. I divided the constituencies into six Democratic tribes, six Republican tribes, and one Apolitical tribe. The differences between the tribes are potential fault lines that could fracture the two political alliances.
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| Thirteen Political Tribes |
The American voting system is the biggest factor binding these disparate tribes together. Our system of partisan primaries tends to weed out moderates, and reward strong partisans. Further, our typical plurality victory rules (“first-past-the-post”) in general elections tend to entrench the two-party system (Duverger's law, if you are interested)
The alliances that develop due to these forces are diverse. The voting system forces alliances, and these are the alliances that evolved. The alliances in each party do share broad sets of values, according to a dichotomy suggested by Jacob Bronowski (without a political context) in “Science and Human Values”. Democrats prioritize values that join people into societies, and Republicans prioritize freedoms as single individuals. But as the weighting of these values becomes more extreme, some individuals and groups are finding themselves uncomfortable within their own party and interested in change.
Here’s how I classify the diverse tribes of each party.
Angry Progressives Monied Republicans
BIPOC Salvation Republicans
Organized Labor NRA/Trump Bullies
LGBTQ+ Libertarians
Disengaged Young Urban Poor Disengaged Rural White Poor
A thirteenth tribe is the genuinely apolitical, disengaged group. This group is poorly informed, and fails to discern a difference between the parties. The group ranges from homeless & working poor to other poorly informed and cynically disengaged non-voters.
Women tend to favor the Democratic Party, but curiously, do not strongly identify as a distinct political tribe, either in partisanship, or in self-identification. Reproductive rights are an important issue to many women (and men), but it doesn't seem to unify a supermajority of women under a single banner.
There are detailed descriptions of each tribe below. I have not based this on any scientific research or polling. These tribes are simply based on my perception, based on people I know or have encountered through politics. There is considerable overlap between the categories, such that Monied Republicans may also be Salvation Republicans, and Barack Obama can be classified as belonging to both the Liberal Elite tribe and the BIPOC tribe. But I think for most voters, there will be a primary tribal allegiance. If you are reading this, you are probably a member of the Liberal Elite tribe, centered around higher education, as I am. Individual politicians can gain clout within their own party by representing more than one constituency. Examples include Barack Obama, as a Liberal Elite and BIPOC, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as a Latina BIPOC and Angry Progressive, Pete Buttigieg as LGBTQ+ and Liberal Elite, and Donald Trump as a Monied Republican and an NRA Bully.
The 2020 election and its aftermath showed significant movement in these core constituencies. The Democratic Party lost vote share in Democratic stronghold districts, particularly among less than college-educated BIPOC, organized labor and young urban voters. In Alaska, this was particularly noticeable in remote Alaska districts with majority Native Alaskan populations. These losses were documented nationwide among BIPOC voters, and contributed to the loss of a net eleven seats in the US House, in an election that should have carried Democratic coat-tails.
Disaffected and disillusioned Republicans include the members of the Lincoln Project, Lisa Murkowski, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Colin Powell and staffers for various national figures. Republicans lost vote share in the suburbs, particularly among women; these losses largely drove President Biden’s victory.
I framed these changes as losses, rather than gains by the opposing party, because they seem to be driven by disillusionment, rather than by attraction of the competing ideology. Going forward, I expect party affiliations to be driven more strongly by education, as the right-wing propaganda machine continues to influence voters with lower education and news engagement. I expect Monied Republicans to migrate to the Democratic Party, as it becomes apparent that Republican policies are slow death to business, even in a lower-tax environment. I expect some of the Organized Labor, BIPOC, and Disengaged Urban Poor voters to migrate to the Republican Party. Democrats can not take these loyalties for granted, and must provide representation and visibility to these constituencies to earn their allegiance. The Republican Party’s embrace of white supremacy may help Democrats, but more must be done to actually maintain these traditional political allies.
The re-orientation of the tribes leaves some groups without a clear political home. Libertarians who are disgusted with authoritarian Trumpist policies are not therefore inclined to become Democrats. Likewise, Salvation and Law & Order Republicans may be prepared to leave the Republican party due to the abuses of the NRA/Trumpist Bully tribe, but will not be willing to accept legal abortion, LGBTQ+ acceptance, or BLM organizers and support. There may be more groups choosing political disengagement, until a major re-organization occurs.
In an environment of political disengagement, there is a
greater risk that the right-wing extremist faction which coalesced under President
Trump will again attempt to take power by a combination of political gains,
intimidation and force. The next decade will
prove whether the American democratic republic will long endure.
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Democrats
Liberal Elites -- Generally white, college &
post-graduate education, professional, sometimes wealthy.
Urban (especially university areas) and
suburban.
Loyal mainstream Democratic supporters.
Policy wonk mentality,
credentialists.
Major Issues: Reproductive choice, Climate Change, gun
control, wealth inequality, social justice (but less interested than Angry
Progressives and BIPOC), mixed opinions on global trade, generally anti-military
spending and involvement.
Angry Progressives
Mainly younger voters
Anti-corporate, anti-capitalism. Want change now, or better, yesterday.
Major issues: Medicare for all,
climate action, green new deal, wealth inequality, social justice (intersectionality,
decolonization, de-funding police, internationally isolationist, anti-global
trade.
Unhappy with mainstream Democrats.
Sometimes
low-engagement voters, often don’t see differences between the major parties
BIPOC – Black, Indigenous, and People of Color,
and Immigrants
Minority, usually urban (Black and
Hispanic) or rural (Indigenous) voters
Loyal Democratic supporters
Want representation; are sometimes
unhappy if support for Democrats is not repaid with representation.
Major issues: Community support
& development, BLM, judicial and policing reform, aid to families,
anti-poverty programs. Reparation for enslavement
and colonization is a growing interest.
Climate Change is a major issue for Indigenous groups.
Some alignment with Salvation
Republicans on religious issues, but this is generally out-weighed by racial
and ethnic issues. Noteworthy is the
rejection of Latinx identification by many Hispanic voters, who differentiate
themselves by national origin.
Labor – Middle-class and working-class
families, mostly urban to suburban.
Traditionally reliable Democratic
voters, but taking direction from union leadership. In recent years, unions have been willing to
shift allegiance to individual Republican state office-holders in exchange for
specific concessions.
Labor voters have much in common
with Law-and-Order Republicans, in terms of income, wealth, education and
attitudes toward race. Labor voters may
be easily persuaded to shift allegiance to Republicans.
Major Issues: Union power, rights, & representation in
government, union governmental contracts for pay & benefits.
LGBTQ+ – Mostly urban constituency, cutting across
many other social, economic and ethnic divisions.
Loyal Democratic voters, activists
and office-holders, disproportionately politically active. Driven by political and religious opposition,
and by success in achieving equal rights in recent decades.
Major Issues: Civil rights and representation. The history of LGBTQ+ repression has promoted
greater empathy for other marginalized groups.
Disengaged Young Urban Poor
This constituency leans Democratic,
but turnout is lowest of major voting groups.
Turnout of young voters is about half of that of elder voters, greatly
hurting their political influence and policies favoring their constituency. Generally less educated than Angry
Progressives, and less partisan. Less informed
than other major voting groups, and unmotivated to vote, due to feelings of
futility. Some overlap with BIPOC group.
Republican
Law-and-Order Republicans—This is the
Republican mainstream.
Suburban to rural, generally
middle-class to working-class white, thrifty homeowners. Includes military and police families, and many
older white citizens; mostly suburban to rural, somewhat more men than women. This
group is centered around respect for official authority and national symbols –
police, military, flag and anthem. They give
these things almost religious significance, such that criticism of them is
considered sacrilege. This group values
conformity, obedience and self-reliance.
Patriotism and tradition are highly valued. This group is generally Christian and
white. There is large overlap with
Salvation Republicans, but with different weighting of religious and
authoritarian values.
These are loyal Republican voters
and exclusive consumers of Fox News, Rush Limbaugh and conventional right-wing
media.
Major Issues: Low taxes, Defense, tough police and
judiciary, conservative social policies, anti-immigration, anti-science,
anti-diversity, anti-Democratic Party.
Salvation Republicans—Evangelical Christians,
often attending megachurches.
Mostly white, suburban middle-class
families, ranging from young to old.
This is a sub-set of Law-and-Order
Republicans, but with a distinct primacy of religious issues and outlook. Other aspects of authoritarian outlook are
the same as the Law-and-Order group, including police, military and
nationalism. Their top issues are abortion,
LGBTQ+ discrimination, sexual constraints and other issues regarded as matters
of religious liberty.
Monied Republicans – Urban and suburban White,
wealthy.
White, wealthy, highly educated families
with high-school & college-aged children, to middle-aged and elderly
retirees. Wealth ranges from a few million
dollars to billionaires. The wealthiest
live near large urban financial center, while moderately wealthy may live near
any urban center. Primarily motivated by
self-interest, Monied Republicans support low personal income taxes, low taxes
on capital returns, low inheritance taxes and low business income taxes. Also motivated by a relaxed business
regulatory environment, and the concept of small government (and low
taxes). Monied Republicans have much in
common with Liberal Elites, and less in common with other Republican
tribes. The main difference between
Liberal Elites and Monied Republicans is a matter of personal values, rather than
demographics. As a consequence, many
families in the white, wealthy world are sharply divided by political
differences.
NRA/Trump Bullies – Mostly male, white rural
gun owners.
White, young-to-middle aged, rural
to suburban, lower-to-middle class working men.
NRA/Trump Bullies are united by a common culture with symbolic
identification – pickup trucks, guns, other rural symbols. The primary political orientation is simply
hatred of liberals and Democrats.
Individualism is the primary value, and rejection of social
responsibility and government. Active on
social media, and devoted followers of right-wing and alternative media ranging
from Fox News, OAN, News Max, InfoWars and QAnon. This group is the most likely to be
influenced by conspiracy theories. President
Trump made significant progress in winning the exclusive loyalty to his person,
rather than to the party as a whole.
This is clearly dangerous with a leader who is unconstrained by regard
for rules, laws or tradition, and a group with an inclination toward threats
and violence.
Libertarians – Mostly white, male,
well-educated iconoclasts and non-conformists.
Libertarians are mostly
well-educated, young to middle-aged urban-to-suburban working men. Generally well-informed but cynical about
government and politics, they have a weak allegiance to the Republican party
because of Republican individualistic values and rejection of social
responsibility. Generally not aligned
with Republican religious values or authoritarian policies.
Apolitical Disengaged
Apolitical – Urban working poor to homeless; includes
other poorly informed or cynically disengaged non-voters. Unlikely to participate in elections without
significant voter outreach.
References:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-five-wings-of-the-republican-party/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-there-are-so-few-moderate-republicans-left/
https://global.oup.com/academic/product/state-capture-9780190870799?cc=us&lang=en&
https://washingtonmonthly.com/magazine/junejulyaugust-2017/tribalists-and-ideologues/
