I posted this last night, 10/23/2017, around midnight Alaska time. This morning, Senator Jeff Flake, R - Arizona, announced he "would not be complicit", and that he would not seek re-election.
Senator Bob Corker and Donald Trump
Republicans have a problem.
For two decades, Republicans have relied on inflammatory populist themes
to motivate their base, to encourage donations, and to win elections. These themes, taken together, define what it
means to be a modern American conservative: ever-lower taxes; cuts to
government programs for the poor; authoritarian nationalism, with support for
military and police; opposition to immigrants, Latinos, Muslims and blacks;
opposition to gay rights; opposition to abortion; adoption of Religious-Right Christian principles in government; aggressive foreign policy; opposition to
any restrictions on guns; denial of climate change and any remedial policies; and
uncompromising opposition to any program favored by Democrats.
Those themes resonated strongly with conservative
voters. The message, particularly
uncompromising opposition to Democrats, was reinforced by a relentless propaganda
campaign by right-wing media, notably Fox News and Breitbart. That campaign put every story through a
political lens, and produced a seriously distorted world-view that was accepted
as fact by conservative voters. The
range of stories lost any sense of being grounded in truth; rather, the only
measure of news was how well it confirmed conservative biases. Confirmation bias is extremely powerful at
strengthening existing beliefs. Social
media played a part, too, producing an echo-chamber feedback that pushed
conservatives to ever-more extreme positions.
Conservatives also became more extreme in their opposition to Democrats.
The problem is that voters elected a President who will actually do the things they promised.
The Republican Dilemma.
Here is the Republican Dilemma in a nutshell. The issues that Republicans used to rile and
galvanize their base are largely nonsense, and thoughtful Republicans knew that
these policies would be destructive, bad government. There are a number of thoughtful and
prominent Republicans – John McCain, Ben Sasse, Jeb and George W. Bush, and
media commentators like Joe Scarborough and David Frum, who have disavowed
major parts of the Trump administration’s program. Moderate Republicans Pat Tiberi, Dave
Reichert, Charlie Dent, and Bob Corker have all announced plans to leave
Congress, citing frustration with current policies. These thoughtful Republicans sat silent while
right-wing media ballyhooed far-right issues because it brought in votes, and
helped the party win elections. But the
Republican Party has now elected high officials, including the president, who
actually believe the nonsense spouted daily on Fox News, and are intent on
enacting these policies as the law of the land.
Thoughtful Republicans are frightened.
During the Obama administration, Republicans could easily
disparage the five-nation treaty with Iran which dismantled that country’s
nuclear program. They knew that their
criticism would not endanger the deal.
The alternatives – to either allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon
within 18 months, or to start World War III – did not have to be taken
seriously. Now, with a bellicose and
erratic president, they have to seriously consider the possibility that the
aggressive actions they’ve recommended for years will actually result in a
major war, possibly a nuclear war or World War, involving North Korea, China,
Russia, as well as Iran. I consider it
likely that any first strike by the United States on North Korea or Iran will
be met with aggressive actions by China and Russia, although not necessarily in
the same theater. China may invade
Taiwan; Russia may invade Ukraine and the Baltic republics. Both will almost certainly support and arm
America’s enemies around the globe: Iran, North Korea, possibly Venezuela, the
Taliban and terrorist organizations.
The same thing holds for less crucial issues. Republicans, while publicly denying Climate
Change, ensured that NASA’s climate-monitoring programs were funded through the
Congressional budget process. But they
are now faced with a President who is unlikely to perform those programs. Republican fiscal conservatives are faced
with a President who is demanding major tax cuts for wealthy individuals and
corporations, cuts that will drastically increase the nation’s debt. The have a President who is determined to
build a wall on the border with Mexico, that is vehemently opposed by Mexicans
and most Americans. They have a
President who is determined to sever international trade deals, which will
cripple the international supply chains of America’s major manufacturing
companies.
We have a sitting Secretary of State who has openly called
the President a “f**king moron”, and a leading Senator who says that the White
House is “adult day care”, and only a handful of officials “separate the
country from chaos”. A former Republican
President and a former Republican Presidential candidate have sharply
repudiated the administration’s policies.
Republicans have a President and a political base that are ready for the
Party to do all of the things it has promised for many years. And I believe that serious, thoughtful
Republicans in the party must be terrified.
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References:
Trump governs by disruption.
Takes actions promised during campaign, regardless of impacts. Acts like a tyrant, pushing criticism and
pain to all who oppose him.
Promised to dismantle government, and is doing it.
Promised to dismantle government, and is doing it.
Bannon declares war on establishment GOP
Trump listens to the most extreme views; whatever gives him
confirmation bias to his populist preconceptions. Tom Cotton epitomizes conservative trolls on
the Internet, who cherry-pick bits and pieces of information to refute sound
arguments based on deeper fundamental analyses.
Text of George W. Bush’s speech at the Spirit of Liberty
event in New York. Bush’s speech rebuked
the populist “America First” theme of the Trump administration, and the
inflammatory anti-immigrant rhetoric the president has used to rally his base.
Moderate Republicans Pat Tiberi,
Dave Reichert, Charlie Dent, and Bob Corker have announced plans to leave
Congress, in what is seen as a sign of frustration with the administration
and far-right wing of the party.
Timeline of deteriorating relationship between Bob Corker
and Donald Trump.
Up to 10 million Americans saw paid Russian ads on Facebook.
Russian Twitter accounts received wide distribution and
exposure through traditional media.
Republican tax plans already face opposition.
Retiring Senator Corker is voicing doubts about Trump that
are held by other Republicans, but only spoken in private.
